A few members have asked for our thoughts on the IBR article about a recent BOMA meeting.
At that event, speakers discussed the need for commercial real estate professionals and developers to prepare for a market downturn and understand the elements that are transforming how the commercial market operates.
On the residential side, Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) and other industry economists, do not sense a major downturn is imminent in our local housing market. In contrast to the commercial market, the residential market is peaking, at least in terms of prices, due to exceptionally low inventory levels compared to the number of buyers moving into our area. It’s classic supply and demand that is pushing up prices.
As noted the IBR article, all markets are cyclical, both commercial and residential. In the housing market, many cite economist Homer Hoyt, who found an 18-year cycle between market peaks. Looking out from the last market valley, some economists are forecasting that the housing market will continue to grow through 2024 or 2026, with market fluctuations between now and then, barring any unforeseen world events or disruptions.
The hope is that when the market cycles back down, it won’t drop back into a recession, but shift back to a more balanced market for buyers and sellers. BRR will continue to watch trends in prices, inventory, unemployment, wages, and economic development, and educate our members on any changes.
While BRR does not make official forecasts, we agree with the sentiment that to survive in real estate long-term, agents must be able to adapt. That requires a solid foundation of professional practices and knowledge, while continuously learning about new trends, consumer needs, advances in technology, and changes to legal and regulatory environments.
For more information on the market stats tracked by BRR and a monthly take on the residential market, visit boirealtors.com/category/market-statistics.
