November 2018 Market Report

MORE NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES AND FEWER EXISTING HOMES KEPT
ADA COUNTY PRICES UP IN NOVEMBER

Key Takeaways:

  •  The overall median sales price for Ada County reached $324,250 in November 2018, driven by the persistently low inventory of existing homes, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.
  • There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.


Analysis:

The median sales price for Ada County in November 2018 was $324,250 for existing and new homes combined. This was up 20.1% over the same month last year, but nearly even with October 2018.

As we’ve shared many times through our market reports, local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

On average, the share of monthly homes sales that are new is typically between 22-23%, meaning the other 77-78% of the sales are of existing homes. When the share of new home sales goes over 24% or 25%, we will see overall home prices (looking at existing and new homes together) increase, on average, between 12-14% year-over-year. As the share of new home sales increases, so does the overall median sales price and the related year-over-year increase.

This is what’s meant when we say the “overall home price is being driven up by more new homes selling.” To further illustrate this, the following table shows the share of new home sales over the past nine months compared to the overall median sales price and year-over-year increase:

November 18 Ada County Share of New Home Sales

However, new home prices are just part of the story.

In November 2018, the median sales price of existing homes in Ada County reached was $295,000, up 18.0% over November 2017. In this segment of the market, price increases are being driven by very low inventory compared to buyer demand.

There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties — and down 12.1% from last year. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.

In comparison, the median sales price for new construction was at $390,000 in November 2018, up 13.9% over November 2017, and just below the most recent record high for this segment, which was $393,705 in June 2018.

If our market conditions of low inventory and high demand continue, there is no guarantee we’ll see prices drop significantly over the next few months, as we might normally expect as we move into the winter months.

However, those thinking about selling or buying shouldn’t be concerned with ‘timing the market,’ because the best time to buy or sell is when it fits your needs and circumstances. If you’re thinking about making a move, talk to your REALTOR® to explore your options.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY IN NOVEMBER

In November 2018, 27 homes sold in Gem County, up 17.4% over last year. This left 53 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 15.9% year-over-year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last five months.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through November 2018 was $196,303 — up 8.1% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. Thinking about selling? Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.


RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyCanyon CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Nov 18Canyon Snapshot - Nov 18Gem Snapshot - Nov 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon CountyCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).