November 2018 Market Report

MORE NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES AND FEWER EXISTING HOMES KEPT
ADA COUNTY PRICES UP IN NOVEMBER

Key Takeaways:

  •  The overall median sales price for Ada County reached $324,250 in November 2018, driven by the persistently low inventory of existing homes, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.
  • There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.


Analysis:

The median sales price for Ada County in November 2018 was $324,250 for existing and new homes combined. This was up 20.1% over the same month last year, but nearly even with October 2018.

As we’ve shared many times through our market reports, local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

On average, the share of monthly homes sales that are new is typically between 22-23%, meaning the other 77-78% of the sales are of existing homes. When the share of new home sales goes over 24% or 25%, we will see overall home prices (looking at existing and new homes together) increase, on average, between 12-14% year-over-year. As the share of new home sales increases, so does the overall median sales price and the related year-over-year increase.

This is what’s meant when we say the “overall home price is being driven up by more new homes selling.” To further illustrate this, the following table shows the share of new home sales over the past nine months compared to the overall median sales price and year-over-year increase:

November 18 Ada County Share of New Home Sales

However, new home prices are just part of the story.

In November 2018, the median sales price of existing homes in Ada County reached was $295,000, up 18.0% over November 2017. In this segment of the market, price increases are being driven by very low inventory compared to buyer demand.

There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties — and down 12.1% from last year. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.

In comparison, the median sales price for new construction was at $390,000 in November 2018, up 13.9% over November 2017, and just below the most recent record high for this segment, which was $393,705 in June 2018.

If our market conditions of low inventory and high demand continue, there is no guarantee we’ll see prices drop significantly over the next few months, as we might normally expect as we move into the winter months.

However, those thinking about selling or buying shouldn’t be concerned with ‘timing the market,’ because the best time to buy or sell is when it fits your needs and circumstances. If you’re thinking about making a move, talk to your REALTOR® to explore your options.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY IN NOVEMBER

In November 2018, 27 homes sold in Gem County, up 17.4% over last year. This left 53 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 15.9% year-over-year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last five months.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through November 2018 was $196,303 — up 8.1% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. Thinking about selling? Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.


RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyCanyon CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Nov 18Canyon Snapshot - Nov 18Gem Snapshot - Nov 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon CountyCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

October 2018 Market Report

OCTOBER MARKS FOUR YEARS OF DECLINING INVENTORY,
CONTINUING THE PRESSURE ON ADA COUNTY HOME PRICES

 Key Takeaways:

  • October 2018 marks a full four years of falling inventory, specifically in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County.
  •  This lack of inventory compared to demand is one of the primary reasons that the median sales price continues to rise compared to last year.
  •  The median sales price in October 2018 was $321,398, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 19.9% from October 2017.

 Analysis:

October 2018 marks a full four years of falling inventory, specifically in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County, when looking at activity by month year-over-year.

There were 870 existing homes for sale in Ada County in October 2018, down 15.0% from October 2017 and down 48.8% from October 2014 when the decline began.

As we’ve outlined in previous reports, there are many reasons the Boise Region is facing a lack of homes for sale. These include the continued population growth, the trend of people choosing to stay in their homes longer than we’ve seen historically, among others.

This persistent lack of existing home inventory is one of the two primary reasons that the area’s overall median sales price continues to rise compared to last year; the second reason, increasing land, labor, and material costs for new homes. For October 2018, this resulted in a median sales price of $321,398, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 19.9% from October 2017.

This nearly 20% increase year-over-year in the overall median sales price for October was primarily due to a higher share of new home sales during the month ― reaching 27.7% of all closed sales, up 10.1% compared to October 2017.

We’ve been talking about the drop in existing inventory literally for years now, but what’s interesting about today’s market is that we’re seeing more and more new construction sales. Whether you’re looking to buy an existing home or a new build, your REALTOR® is going to advocate for you throughout the transaction. And if you’re thinking of selling, these recent numbers indicate that despite the turn in temperature, it’s still a good time to put your home on the market.


HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY

In October 2018, 36 homes sold in Gem County, up 28.6% from October 2017. This left 57 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month — down 19.7% from the same month last year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last four months.

The median sales price for homes that sold in October was $199,450, based on activity over the past 12 months — up 11.1% over the same period last year. There are two primary reasons that the median sales price rose compared to last year — the lack of inventory compared to demand, and an increase in the share of new homes sales in October.

Five new homes sold in Gem County in October 2018, the same number as October 2017. However, new home sales made up a larger share of total sales at 11.1% in October, compared to the average of 5-6% we typically see in Gem County. New homes typically sell for higher prices than existing homes due to increased land, labor, and material costs, so when the share of new home sales increases, so does the median sales price.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. If you’re thinking about selling, now is a great time to put your home on the market. Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyCanyon CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Oct 18

Canyon Snapshot - Oct 18Gem Snapshot - Oct 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon CountyCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

July 2018 Market Report

ADA COUNTY EXISTING/RESALE
HOUSING INVENTORY INCHES UP IN JULY

  • July 2018 marked four consecutive months of gains in existing/resale inventory in Ada County when measured month-to-month. More inventory is the key to bring balance back to the residential real estate market.
  • Looking at existing and new construction combined, the median sales price for July 2018 was at $319,000 – down just 1.7% from June 2018, but up 18.2% from July 2017.
  • REALTORS® caution sellers not to assume the market has turned as the supply-demand ratio (tracked through the Months Supply of Inventory metric) for homes priced under $500,000 in the existing/resale segment was still under 1.5 months — 4-6 months of supply is considered a balanced market, not favoring buyers or sellers.

July 2018 marked four consecutive months of gains in existing/resale inventory in Ada County when measured month-to-month. More inventory is the key to bring balance back to the residential real estate market, and while this recent uptick was not enough to stop the nearly four-year trend of year-over-year decreases, we’ll certainly take it.

Ada County’s new construction inventory has now been up month-over-month for two consecutive months – but we’ll need to see at least four to six months of consistent month-over-month increases before we can identify any overarching trends in the segment and the market overall.

The additional inventory – and the annual shift in buyer demand (as we move from the spring/early summer market into the late summer/fall market) held prices for existing/resale homes nearly even with June 2018, while new construction prices dipped 3.5%.

Looking at existing and new construction combined, the median sales price for July 2018 was at $319,000 – down just 1.7% from June 2018, but up 18.2% from July 2017.

This is a nice illustration of how more supply – even a little bit – can affect home prices. But sellers should not assume this means the market has turned. Existing homes only spent an average of 18 days on market before going under contract in July, a near-historic low, and 10.0% faster than in July 2017. And while buyer demand may be starting its typical seasonal slowdown, the supply-demand ratio (tracked through the Months Supply of Inventory metric) for homes priced under $500,000 in the existing/resale segment was under 1.5 months. We’re still a far cry from the 4-6 months of supply we need to see the market come totally back into balance.


GEM COUNTY HOMES SALES WERE STRONG
AS INVENTORY INCREASES IN JULY

In July 2018, 31 homes sold in Gem County, up 14.8% from July 2017. This left 76 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month — down 8.4% from the same month last year, but up 4.1% from the previous month (June 2018).

Although inventory is down year-over-year, July 2018 marked four consecutive months of gains in inventory in Gem County when measured month-to-month. More inventory is the key to bring balance back to the residential real estate market. 4-6 months of supply is considered a balanced market, and in July the supply-demand ratio (tracked through the Months Supply of Inventory metric) was 3.0 months of supply in Gem County. However, this doesn’t mean that buyer demand has diminished — pending sales were up 22.6% in July 2018 compared to the year before.

The median sales price for existing/resale homes in Gem County was $194,675 as of July 2018, based on activity over the past 12 months — an increase of 13.7% over the same period last year. For new homes, the median sales price was $208,347 as of July, also based on activity over the past 12 months. This was up 3.9% over the same period in the previous year.

In the city of Emmett, closings were up 8.0% year-over-year, as 27 homes sold in July 2018 compared to 25 in July 2017, for existing/resale and new construction combined. Based on activity in both segments over the past 12 months, the median sales price for Emmett was at $225,829 in July, a gain of 23.1% over the same period last year.

In the last few months, we’ve seen more inventory come onto the market in Gem County, which is needed to bring the market back in balance. If you’re considering selling, speak to a REALTOR® to learn more about your options, and if you’re interested in buying, you may find that there are more homes available in this area that we’ve seen in the last year or so.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyCanyon CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - July 18Canyon Snapshot - July 18

 

Gem Snapshot - July 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon CountyCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

Follow up to a Recent KTVB Story

Hello BRR Members,

You may have seen a recent KTVB story about the real estate market. We were happy that they reached out to us for a take on the stats, as we want to be sure we’re helping you tell the story of the market with facts and data.

However, we know they can’t fit everything into a short segment so wanted to provide you with our full talking points and context around some of the quotes used in the story, for your reference and to share with your clients.

  • Based on data back to 2004, we do see inventory at its lowest point with prices at their highest. It’s a function of supply and demand, as we have more people staying in their homes longer with more people move into the area.
  • The most recent market data reflects the start of the spring market and combines existing and new construction together. The median sales price of existing homes is nearly 35% lower than that of new construction.
  • The full context of the quote, “Boise is still a more affordable,” was that Boise is still a more affordable market when compared to nearby higher priced areas, but we are watching prices, wages, and mortgage interest rates to provide local leaders with the information they need to make decisions about how our community will grow.
  • While prices are growing, we do see the rate at which they are growing has been slowing down for the past few years. As mortgage interest rates rise, a more even pace of growth should continue.
  • “Inventory will be something that buyers will have to work through with their REALTORS® to identify the options they do have.” We know there is a lack of inventory especially at the lower price points, but there are still options available.
  • When asked about the perception that the quality or condition of homes under $250,000 were mostly rehabs or needed a lot of work, we shared that “buyers shouldn’t think they’re going to have to sacrifice too much or do a lot of work” just because they are buying in the lower price points. There are well-maintained homes in all areas and all price points.
  • There are homes in both existing and new construction in all prices points, but lower priced new construction is more likely going to be found in western Ada County or in Canyon County, where new developments are coming online.
  • One positive effect of this market for homeowners is the growth in equity they’ve seen over the past few years. For those who do want to move, they may be able to move up in price point or into new construction or have equity to make improvements on their home to make it more suitable to their needs if they are not interested in selling.

We hope this information is helpful for you. If you have questions or need more, please don’t hesitate to let us know.

BRR is committed to fostering conversation around housing affordability and growth, and what’s needed for our communities.  We’ve been encouraged by the discussions we’ve been a part of with related industry groups of developers, builders, and mortgage lenders; local governments, transportation agencies, and economic development groups; and, engaged neighborhood associations and residents who want to preserve our quality of life. BRR will continue to monitor the local real estate market and provide market research in order to inform our members, decision makers, and the public. We will also continue our advocacy efforts in supporting local initiatives that enhance the value, safety, and livability of our region.

If you’d like to be part of the growth and affordability discussion or have ideas on what you’d like to see BRR doing on behalf of you and your clients, please reach out to me directly.

Sincerely,

Breanna Vanstrom MBA, RCE
Chief Executive Officer
Boise Regional REALTORS®

More New Construction Homes Available Than Existing in Ada County

Ada County hit another record low for inventory in December 2017, with just 1,391 homes for sale — a 6.6% drop from December 2016. While we’ve discussed the lack of inventory at length in our previous market reports, a new twist on the inventory shortage showed up in the December 2017 numbers…

There were 317 more new homes for sale in Ada County in December 2017 than existing homes. The actual numbers reported for Ada County were 854 new homes, compared to 537 existing homes on the market in December 2017.

Looking back at the year, there were five months that this happened, but December 2017 had the largest spread. (We saw this once in December 2016, but never before then in our ten-year data set.)

As reported by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), we need builders to bring more product online to pull us out of our local – and nationwide – inventory shortage, so an increase in new construction is welcomed.

But some question if this strategy could lead to another wave of overbuilding like we saw in the mid-2000s. At that time, new construction was more speculative, which led to more new houses than there was demand. Today’s new construction inventory levels are much more in line with buyer demand for new homes, which has increased with the Boise region’s population growth.

The Months Supply of Inventory figures for new construction in Ada County over the past 4-5 years indicate a general balance between supply and buyer demand. In December 2017, the months supply of new homes was at 4.1 months. A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply.

December 2017 Chart

That’s a good starting point for builders, as they’re not too far behind demand right now. Although, we did see the months supply of new homes dip below 4.0 months last summer, so the more product that can get started now, the better.

A mix of price points among newly constructed homes will also be necessary, but that’s proved difficult with the rising cost of land, labor, and materials. This was evident in December 2017, as Ada County’s median sales price for new homes saw a record high of $361,030, up 13.5% from December 2016. (In comparison, the median sales price of existing homes in Ada County was at $254,250 in December 2017.)

Additional information about trends within Ada County as well as Canyon County, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the December 2017 Market Report. This includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the latest market snapshot graphics for Ada County, Canyon County, and Gem County:

ADA Snapshot - December 17   CANYON Snapshot - December 17    GEM Snapshot - December 17

Download print quality snapshot graphics for Ada County, Canyon County, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR). BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 4,300 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the Boise Regional REALTORS® Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.