Boise Housing Market Remains Strong, Unaffected By Elections

  • Elections occur during the seasonal, annual slowdown in the real estate sales cycle and don’t typically have a short-term impact on the housing market. This year is no exception.
  • Year-over-year growth in pending sales shows that we’ll continue to have strong sales through the end of 2016 in both Ada and Canyon Counties.
  • Prices continue to be driven by limited supply and high consumer demand, not market speculation as was experienced a decade ago.

Elections occur during the seasonal, annual slowdown in the real estate sales cycle and don’t typically have a short-term impact on the housing market. The 2016 elections were no exception, according to Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist for REALTOR.com®, in his article about how Presidential elections affect the U.S. housing market.

Potential changes in policies and programs related to taxes, lending, employment, student loan debt, and so on, will certainly affect housing over the long-term, but how and what that impact will be remains to be seen. These are issues that REALTOR.com and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) will monitor, and that Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) will analyze locally through these monthly market reports.

This month’s report looks at local activity through October 2016, so we’ll have a better look at how local homebuyers reacted when we get our November numbers. That said, year-over-year growth in pending sales shows that we’ll continue to have strong sales through the end of 2016.

There were 1,319 pending sales in Ada County in October 2016, up 7.8% compared to October 2015. Canyon County had 585 pending sales in October 2016, up 21.9% over last year. These are homes that will closed within the next 30-90 days.

Of those homes that did close in October, the median sales price was up in both counties. Ada County’s median sales price was $252,000, up 9.6% compared to October 2015, and in Canyon County, the median sales price was up 9.9% year-over-year, reaching $164,000. “Home prices are down slightly from this summer, but still near the historical high points,” said Carey Farmer, BRR President and Broker Associate at Group One Sotheby’s International Realty. “Prices continue to be driven by very low supply and high consumer demand, not market speculation as was experienced a decade ago.”

The number of homes for sale in Ada County dropped back below the 2,000-mark for the first time since April 2016, reaching 1,950 in October 2016, a decrease of 12.5% compared to last year. Canyon County had just 945 homes for sale in October 2016, down 8.9% from October 2015. Inventory in that county has been under the 1,000-mark since November 2015.

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the October 2016 Market Report. This includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ada-snapshot-octobercanyon-snapshot-october

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 4,000 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the Boise Regional REALTORS® Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Home Prices Remain Strong Due to Buyer Demand and Low Inventory

Fall is typically the time of year when our local real estate market slows down when comparing activity month-to-month. The weather cools down, people head back to school, and holiday plans are starting to become top-of-mind for many. While this year is no exception, and we are seeing month-over-month decreases in most metrics, the better measure of market performance is a year-over-year comparison. Here’s what we mean…

Ada County Single-Family Home Activity

  • There were 1,435 pending sales in September 2016, which is down 5.0% from August 2016, but up 15.9% compared to September 2015 showing that demand remains higher than last year.
  • There were 976 closed sales in September 2016, which was 4.0% lower than in August 2016, but 18.0% higher than September 2015.
  • The median sales price in September 2016 was $249,995, down just 1.2% from August 2016, but up 7.3% over the September 2015 median sales price.

Canyon County Single-Family Home Activity

  • There were 606 pending sales in September 2016, which is down 5.2% from August 2016, but up 19.1% compared to September 2015.
  • There were 392 closed sales in September 2016, which was 7.5% lower than in August 2016, but 5.7% higher than September 2015.
  • The median sales price in September 2016 was $159,974, down 3.0% from August 2016, but up 11.9% over the September 2015 median sales price.

“Lack of inventory compared to the ongoing demand is the main driver of home prices in both counties,” said Carey Farmer, BRR’s 2016 President and Associate Broker with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty. “It’s a very different market than 5 or 10 years ago when prices and inventory tracked together, especially in Ada County. Today, the county’s median sales price is trending up while inventory remains well below the 10-year historical monthly average of 3,000 homes for sale, and is trending down.”

historical-msp-vs-inv

In Ada County, there were 2,171 homes for sale in September 2016, which was 9.9% less than in September 2015, and Canyon County’s inventory was 11.5% lower in September 2016 than the previous year, with 982 homes for sale.

“Homeowners considering selling their home this year should not let the conventional wisdom that fall isn’t a great time to sell, hold them back,” reiterated Farmer. “As you can see by demand, buyers are still shopping and the increasing prices may mean your home is worth more than you thought. A REALTOR® can show you the most current and accurate data to determine if now is the right time to sell your home and take advantage of the price appreciation we’re seeing in nearly all segments of the market.”

To find a REALTOR®, please use the “find an agent” feature REALTOR.com® or Intermountain MLS.

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the September 2016 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ada-snapshot-septembercanyon-snapshot-september

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,800 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the Boise Regional REALTORS® Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Could September Be the Best Time of Year to Buy a Home?

A year ago, we looked at the question posed by REALTOR.com about whether or not September was the perfect month to buy a home. That article looked at national trends, but based on local statistics, the answer for our market was “yes,” and that seems to be the case once again this year.

While fall is typically the time of year when purchase activity tends to dip—both locally and nationally—it’s ideal for those buyers still hunting for a home. Carey Farmer, 2016 President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and broker associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty, explains: “Home buyers are not competing with as many people as they were in the spring and summer. So while inventory overall remains low compared to last year, fewer buyers in the market means less chance of getting into a multiple offer situation.”

Case in point for Ada County real estate: Pending sales remained strong compared to last year, up 18.1% versus August 2015, but were down 7.8% from July 2016. Inventory, however, was down 10.0% compared to August 2015, but actually grew 2.6% from July 2016.

Some buyers may be wary of how high prices have reached—up 10.0% from last year to $253,000 as of August 2016 for Ada County—but as interest rates stay near historic lows and employment numbers continue to be strong, affordability in our region remains favorable; especially compared to higher-priced markets nearby.

“The best advice I can give to any prospective buyer is to do your homework and find trusted partners,” said Farmer. “Work with a lender to determine what you can comfortably afford based on your down payment, and options for getting the best possible interest rate. Also, find a REALTOR® to guide you through the process, they will help you prepare strong offers and negotiate your best deal—which may go beyond price, and include seller-paid closing costs, repairs to the home, or favorable move-in dates.”

What does all this mean for home sellers? They’re still in a great spot. While the increased median sales price may make some buyers pause, it’s welcome news for sellers. In general, prices are rising due to restricted supply. In August 2016, there was 1.8 months of existing homes for sale, up slightly from July, but 18.2% behind August 2015. A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply.

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the August 2016 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ada-snapshot-augustcanyon-snapshot-august

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,800 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the Boise Regional REALTORS® Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Home Sales Remain Strong in Ada and Canyon Counties Due to High Demand and Low Interest Rates

  • Ada County home prices were down in July compared to June, per annual seasonal trends, but consumer demand remains high.
  • Inventory of existing homes increased compared to last month, but overall, inventory levels are well below consumer demand, keeping prices higher than last year.
  • Persistently low interest rates still make buying a home attractive for many, especially with a tight rental market.

Last month we saw home prices in Ada County reach a new historic high, but that upward trend did not continue into July. The median sales price for homes sold in July 2016 was at $243,000, up 5.5% compared to July 2015, but down 4.0% from the June 2016 figure.

“We expect to see month-over-month declines in price this time of year as we come down from the busy spring and summer months,” said Carey Farmer, 2016 President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Broker Associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty. “We’ve also seen inventory of existing homes increase over the past few months, which is good news for buyers — but, sellers are still in a great position with price, especially compared previous years.”

While the number of existing homes for sale has been slowly increasing every month — up 8.7% between June and July 2016; overall inventory levels in Ada County are well below last year. This is driving the year-over-year price gains.  Inventory of newly constructed homes has fluctuated up and down each month, but has remained below the 800-mark since January 2016.

In Canyon County, prices continued to increase, reaching $169,700 in July 2016. This was 3.3% higher than June 2016, and 13.1% higher than July 2015. “Many buyers have opted for Canyon County because of the lower prices compared to Ada County,” explained Farmer, “but as demand picks up there, it puts upward pressure on prices.”

Taking a closer look at buyer demand, pending sales continued to be strong in both counties compared to last year, for existing and new construction. In July 2016, pending sales for existing homes in Ada County were up 13.4% over last year to 1,066, and pending sales for newly constructed homes were up 51.2% over last year to 573. In Canyon County, pending sales for existing homes were up 11.4% over last year to 536, and up 24.8% for newly constructed homes to 156.

Local population growth, a tight rental market, and persistently low interest rates are a few reasons that buyer demand remained high. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the 30-year conventional mortgage rate was at 3.44% in July 2016 — the fourth lowest in history. Previous lows included 3.38% in October 2012, 3.35% in November and December 2012, and 3.41% in January 2013.

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the July 2016 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ADA Snapshot - July   CANYON Snapshot - July

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,800 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the Boise Regional REALTORS® Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Ada County Home Prices Reach Record High in June but Historically Low Mortgage Rates Keep Affordability in Check

  • New record high for Ada County home prices driven by consumer demand and population growth, not the market speculation seen a decade ago.
  • Last month’s drop in the median new home price was due to more lower-priced homes becoming available and selling, not a lack of demand for the segment.
  • Historically low interest rates and a strong local economy are keeping affordability in check, despite the higher home prices.

Last month we noted that home prices are typically the highest in June, July, and August each year—and this year will be no exception. In June 2016, the median sales price for new and existing homes combined reached $253,000 in Ada County, a new high surpassing the previous record set in July 2006.

A 10.0% year-over-year jump in Ada County’s existing median sale price was behind the increase, reaching a record high of $239,900 in June 2016. “Compared to 10 years ago, consumer demand versus supply is causing home prices to rise—not market speculation,” said Carey Farmer, 2016 President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Broker Associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty.

Pending sales for existing homes were up 19.6% over last year, while inventory was down 22.7%.

In contrast, the median sales price for newly constructed homes in Ada County saw a decrease of 7.7% from June 2015, settling at $304,500 in June 2016. This drop in price is not from a lack in demand, but rather, more lower-priced new construction becoming available and then selling, pulling down the median sales price for the segment overall. Looking at June 2015 vs. June 2016, sales of new homes priced under $300,000 jumped by nearly 71.0%.

Christine Comstock, Sales Coach Director with CBH Homes, and Director on the Intermountain MLS (IMLS) Board, had this explanation: “CBH and other builders are finally able to offer more lower-priced new inventory to meet consumer demand, and they’re selling fast.”

Pending sales for newly constructed homes increased a whopping 45.1% over last year, while inventory remained flat, looking at all price points combined.

Comparisons to 2006 home prices beg the question of whether or not we are in another housing bubble. Economists say “no.” Today’s lending environment is so much more regulated than it was back then, and the national and local economy is much stronger. What is really behind the consumer demand is population growth, both in the number of people moving to the Boise region, and the huge number of Millennials—the largest generation in history—aging into homeownership nationwide.

While record high prices raise concerns of affordability, persistent low mortgage rates are keeping things in check. According to the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED Economic Data 30-Year Conventional Mortgage data, the 3.57% mortgage rate for June 2016 was 10.3% lower than last year at this time, and was down 7.8% from January 2016.

FRED Mortgage Image

“When we look at the income needed to purchase a median priced home in Ada or Canyon County, based on today’s mortgage rates and local income levels, things are still quite affordable,” said Farmer.

EXPLANATION: The following charts look at each county’s estimated median household income and the income distribution, compared to the income needed to purchase a median priced home based on the June mortgage rate of 3.57% on a 30-year conventional fixed mortgage.

Ada County Affordability Graph                     Canyon County Affordability Graph

“Buyers at or above the median household income in Ada County should have no problem purchasing an existing home even with a 5% down payment,” explains Farmer, “… and while a smaller down payment may make things a bit tighter when looking at new construction, it’s certainly not out of reach. Canyon County also remains very affordable in both existing and new construction for most buyers.”

For potential homebuyers struggling to save a down payment, Farmer encourages them to talk to their mortgage lenders and REALTORS® about financing options or down payment programs from groups like Idaho Housing and Finance Association (IHFA) to help people get into homes.

Additional information about trends within each county, and by price point, by existing vs. new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the June 2016 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

  CANYON Snapshot - June

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,700 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Strong Spring Market Encourages More Ada County Home Sellers

Ada County home prices are typically the highest in June, July, and August each year, based on monthly averages going back to 2004. Homes that sell in these months typically go under contract between April and July, as it takes on average 30-60 days from an accepted offer to get to the closing table. In May 2016, Days on Market was at 38 days — meaning most of those homes sold last month went under contract in March or April. Looking ahead, sellers still have time to get on the market and take advantage of some of the highest sale prices of the year.

While inventory of existing homes is still tight compared to last year (down 17.7% from May 2015), there has been some month-over-month improvement in the number of existing homes for sale, as more sellers hope to secure a summer closing.

  • February to March 2016, existing inventory grew by 7.8%
  • March to April 2016, existing inventory grew by 6.5%
  • April to May 2016, existing inventory grew by 16.4%

Although we generally expect more homes to come on the market throughout spring, this year’s trend is the reverse of what we saw in 2015:

  • February to March 2015, existing inventory grew by 14.2%
  • March to April 2015, existing inventory grew by 8.6%
  • April to May 2015, existing inventory grew by 4.2%

The 2016 numbers are encouraging, but more existing homes are needed to keep up with buyer demand — evidenced by a 12.8% increase in pending sales activity. The low inventory combined with higher pending sales resulted in a 22.7% year-over-year decrease in months supply of existing homes for sale, ending the month at just 1.7 months of inventory. (A balanced market is typically between 4-6 months of supply.)

Newly constructed inventory for Ada County did increase by 4.6% compared to May 2015, however, the higher median sales price for new homes (at $316,450 in May 2016) is out of reach for many first-time home buyers, and may be too much of a jump in price for move-up buyers — especially compared to the median sale price for existing homes, which was at $228,250 in May 2016. That said, demand for new homes remained strong as this segment saw a 46.4% year-over-year increase in pending sales, resulting in a 31.6% drop in months supply from May 2015, ending at 3.9 months of new inventory.

“While the spring and summer months are typically the most active for the Ada County real estate market, the past few years have seen sustained activity well into fall and winter,” said Carey Farmer, 2016 President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Broker Associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty. “Anyone who is considering selling their home should speak to a REALTOR® to get the best advice on price and the home sale process, based on current market conditions.”

Additional information about trends within each county, and by price point, by existing vs. new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the May 2016 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ADA Snapshot - May CANYON Snapshot - May

To learn more about how this housing market is having an impact on the region as a whole, and how the regional trends are affecting the market, join us for BRR’s Mid-Year Housing Summit on June 23. Details at boirealtors.com.

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,700 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Distributed to the media on June 12, 2016.

Home Prices Near Peak but Inventory Mix Makes This Market Different

In April 2016, home sales and prices were up, while inventory and market times were down. These have been the trends for the past few months, and as such, we’ve talked about how our low supply of existing homes and increasing demand from in-migration and growing local population have impacted prices in past market reports.

But month-after-month, the median sales price has been getting closer to our market peak in July 2006 — off just 3.1% for Ada County as of April 2016. While this has caused many to wonder if we’re nearing another market peak, taking a closer look at today’s inventory, that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Single-family inventory in Ada County, for existing and new construction combined, in April 2016, was 63.9% lower than the high in July 2007. So, while prices are getting back to the recent market peak, inventory is nowhere near the levels we saw back then. And that’s kind of a good thing…

We don’t have an oversupply of homes being built speculatively, nor do we have the fear of a distressed “shadow market” as we did back in the mid-2000s. On the contrary, new construction inventory in Ada County was at 3.9 months of supply in April (on the edge of the 4-6 month mark that’s considered balanced). Homes that were foreclosures or short sales accounted for less than 1% of the inventory — and a recent report from RealtyTrac indicated that the number of homes nationwide that are “underwater” continues to go down.

Of course the difficulty with having low inventory overall, especially among existing homes, is that buyers don’t have many options. On top of that, pending sales continue to outpace the previous year, up 20.2% in Ada County compared to April 2015. Therefore, it’s high demand vs. low supply that is pushing up prices, not market speculation. And for those buyers who do purchase, improved lending practices and low unemployment rates mean the mortgage default risk going forward should remain low.

Another positive sign regarding equity is that Idaho is one of the top states for all-cash purchases. While this includes some owner-occupants, most of this activity is among investors who have equity in these properties, instead of carrying multiple, potentially risky, mortgages.

Improving prices should also help homeowners who purchased just before, or during, the market peak regain any lost equity, which will in turn, enable to them to sell. “Many people have held off listing their homes because they simply couldn’t afford to; and it’s been a main contributor to our current inventory situation,” said Carey Farmer, 2016 President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Broker Associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty. “I encourage anyone who is considering selling their home to talk to a REALTOR® to get a true picture of what their home is worth in today’s market. Many people are in a better position than they realize, and we need more homes to come online to meet the demand from buyers.”

Additional information about trends within each county, and by price point, by existing vs. new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the April 2016 Market Report.  This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Ada County Market Snapshot: April 2016Canyon County Market Snapshot: April 2016

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,600 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

 

Distributed to the media on May 12, 2016.

Strong Spring Housing Market Doesn’t Mean Sellers Can Overprice

Tight inventory continued to push home prices up in March 2016, and sales remained strong.

In March 2016, the median sales price of all single-family homes in Ada County, as tracked by the Intermountain MLS, was at $234,950, up 5.4% compared to March 2015. The median sales price of existing single-family homes was $215,000, up 2.4% year-over-year; the new construction median sales price was $296,000, up 4.8% year-over-year. There were 788 closed sales in Ada County in March 2016, up 13.5% from March 2015.

In Canyon County, the median sales price of all single-family homes was $156,150, up 16.1% from March 2015. The median sales price of existing single-family homes was $149,900, up 15.3% year-over-year; and the new construction median sales price was $197,800, up 13.0% year-over-year. There were and 356 closed sales in Canyon County, up 21.5%, over the same month last year.

For sellers, it’s easy to want to list higher when there is so much buyer demand “just to see” what they could get. Sellers who want to test the market with a higher price may tell their agent they will “let the buyer talk them down on price” or that they’re hoping for multiple offers over asking price like “their friend had, just one day after listing.”

There were a few spots in the region where this was the case last month. In Northeast Boise (IMLS Area 0200), on average, existing homes sold for 102.0% over asking, and in Southeast Meridian (IMLS Area 0100), existing homes sold for 103.7% over asking, on average. In both Ada and Canyon Counties, most newly constructed homes sold at or above asking price in March 2016, often because of upgrades.

While it may feel like every house sells over asking price in just one day, that’s not the case overall.

Existing homes in Ada County neighborhoods sold, on average, between 93.6% (Meridian SW 1010) and 98.8% (Boise N 0100) under asking price. Existing homes in Canyon County neighborhoods sold, on average, between 81.3% (Wilder 1293) and 99.8% (Nampa S 1260) under asking price.

Carey Farmer 2016 President

These numbers are still very positive for sellers, but serve as a benchmark for the research provided by their REALTOR®. Carey Farmer, 2016 President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Broker Associate with Group One Sotheby’s International Realty, explains: “Our job is to present an accurate, current, and realistic view of the market to our sellers to attract the most buyers, and to work to ensure their selected offer will appraise.”

Even with high demand, buyers can sense when a home is not reasonably priced because they’ve toured a lot of homes and are doing their research online. But should a seller accept an offer that’s above market, there may not be recent, comparable sales to support the appraisal. In this case, the deal is on hold the seller and buyer can agree to a reduced price, or the buyer may cancel and move on.

This news may give some relief to buyers, but it does not mean offers can go too low. Just as they’ll do for sellers, REALTORS® will research comparable homes to help buyers determine a strong offer price that’s reasonable based on the market and (hopefully) acceptable to the sellers. While not every house may be in a multiple offer situation, if an offer is weak, the seller may decline. “If we have offer but more showings are scheduled in the next few days or hours, some sellers may wait, hoping for a better price or more favorable terms,” said Farmer. (“Terms” refer to earnest money, closing date, seller contributions, inspection contingencies, and other aspects of the offer.)

Both buyers and sellers must work closely with their REALTOR® to stay on top of market trends, to make sure offers and listings are the best they can be from the get-go.

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March 2016 Market Summary

Activity from Intermountain MLS, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Boise Regional REALTORS®, as of April 11, 2016 for single-family homes, with existing and new properties, and all neighborhoods combined.

Metrics Ada County Canyon County
Mar 2016 YOY % Chg Mar 2016 YOY % Chg
Closed Sales 788 13.5% 356 21.5%
Median Sales Price $234,950 5.4% $156,150 16.1%
Days on Market 56 -13.8% 55 -19.1%
Pending Sales 1,590 24.2% 622 7.8%
Inventory 1.796 -17.4% 772 -28.0%
Months Supply 2.6 -27.8% 2.7 -35.7%

Additional information about trends within each county, and by price point, by existing vs. new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the March 2016 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download and share the snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ADA Snapshot - March 2016 CANYON Snapshot - March 2016

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS®, which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,600 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

Distributed to the media on April 12, 2016.

New Market Reports Show Strong Start for Housing in 2016

Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) is kicking off the year with new market reports that provide a more detailed view of the region’s housing market. Starting with January 2016 data, we will dig deeper into trends happening within price points, between existing homes and new construction, and highlight sales and price trends by city, while continuing to report county-level trends.

The new reports for Ada County and for Canyon County are now available here.

Carey Farmer, President of Boise Regional REALTORS® and Associate Broker at Group One Real Estate: “This new level of detail helps consumers understand the trends behind the trends, while also giving our REALTOR® members another tool to explain these market variations to their buyers and sellers.”

For example, looking at the Months Supply of Inventory metric for homes priced between $200,000-$249,999, as of January 2016, the demand for existing homes in Ada County far outpaced the supply, putting sellers in a great position to list. That said, buyers have a variety of options to choose from in new construction both in Ada and Canyon Counties.

“2016 started off much stronger compared to last year, both in price and the number of sales in most segments,” said Farmer. “I’ve encouraged many homeowners who are thinking of waiting until spring to list their homes, to talk to a REALTOR® now. As the January 2016 market report shows, there are huge opportunities for sellers in nearly every price point in Ada County, and especially for homes priced under $300,000 in Canyon County.”

Key metrics show increases in closed sales, pending sales, and median sales compared to a year ago for all single-family homes with all price points combined:

Ada County

Canyon County

Jan 2016

% Chg Jan 2016

% Chg

Closed Sales

459

7.7% 225

11.9%

Median Sales Price

$237,638

5.9% $146,000

15.0%

Days on Market

67

-4.3% 58

-22.7%

Pending Sales

1,109

27.9% 439

9.7%

Inventory

1,695

-11.5% 795

-23.2%

Months Supply of Inventory

2.7

-27.0% 3.1

-34.0%

 

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by city, are now available at boirealtors.com/category/market-info. And download the monthly snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County.

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This report is provided by the Ada County Association of REALTORS® (ACAR), which began doing business as Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) in 2016. BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 3,600 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

 

Distributed to the media on February 12, 2016.

Low Unemployment, Interest Rates Keep Homes Affordable Event as Prices Rise

In November 2015, the median sales price of single family home prices in Ada County, as tracked through the Intermountain MLS, was at $240,300 up 11.5% compared to November 2014. Breaking that down by sales type, the median sales price of existing single family homes was $213,000, up 7.2% year-over-year, while the new construction median sales price was $356,209, up 11.9% year-over-year.

According to a survey from the National Association of REALTORS®, the median price in Idaho is expected to increase by 3-4% over the next 12 months (looking ahead to October 2016), for existing and new homes combined. While the survey doesn’t break those numbers down to other geographies, in Ada County, we’ve seen prices increase over the past 12 months (from October 31, 2014 to November 30, 2015) by 8.7% for all homes—the median sales price for existing homes was up 8.8% year-to-date, and by 3.9% year-to-date for new construction homes.

There are a variety of factors that will determine where prices end up a year from now, especially local unemployment rates. The latest numbers from the Idaho Department of Labor show a 2.9% unemployment rate for Ada County, as of October 2015. Boise City had the lowest rate across the state at 2.4%, and Meridian came in at 3.6%. These were all well under the 5% rate nationwide.

“There is always a concern that when prices rise, homes will become unaffordable for some people,” said Brenda Kolsen, 2015 President of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®. “We’ll certainly continue to watch affordability in our region, but with the positive jobs numbers, recent wins by BVEP which is bringing new companies to the Valley, and continued interest from people wanting to move to our area, we feel that our local real estate market is in a great position for buyers and sellers alike—and we expect it to be that way for some time.”

Additionally, low down payment programs and the continuation of historically low mortgage rates have allowed people to purchase homes even as prices have risen. In November 2015, HSH.com reported mortgage rates at 3.988%.

In addition to price, here is how the rest of the market performed in November 2015, looking at all single-family home activity in Ada County, as reported to the Intermountain MLS, a subsidiary of the Ada County Association of REALTORS®:

  • Closed Sales were at 621, up 13.1% year-over-year, and up 18.4% YTD
  • Median Sales Price was at $240,300, up 11.5% year-over-year, and up 8.7% YTD
  • Days on Market was at 50 days, down 10.9% year-over-year, and down 9.1% YTD
  • Pending Sales were at 1,152, up 39.3% year-over-year (not tracked YTD)
  • Inventory was at 1,919, down 15.2% year-over-year (not tracked YTD)
  • Months of Inventory was at 2.7 months, down 28.9% year-over-year (not tracked YTD)

Download the November 2015 Snapshot

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The information in this market report is based on a variety of sources, but primarily on the public statistics provided by the Intermountain MLS (IMLS), a subsidiary of ACAR, available here: http://publicstats.intermountainmls.com/static/Reports/Ada/2015/November-2015-Ada.pdf. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in Ada County during the specified time period. The IMLS provides these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but makes no representations as to the past or future appreciation or depreciation of property values. (To reduce the error, only data falling within 3 standard deviations from the mean has been included in the report. Existing and new construction statistics are calculated independently and may not sum to the total number of homes sold.) Changes to methodology: Effective 3/1/2007, ‘days on market’ refers to the number of days that transpire between the listing date and the date the property goes into pending status. Effective 4/1/2011, standard deviation is modified to reflect the difference between the asking and sold prices as a percentage of the asking price.