November Market Report- Hoping for a Nice Christmas Present!

Market Snapshot_November2Single family home sales in November 2014 were 528 in Ada County, an decrease of 5% compared to November 2013.  YTD total sales are down 3% compared to this time last year; 7,155 homes sold compared to 7,387. Reluctantly, I’m going to have to recognize that total homes sold in 2014 will not exceed the number of homes sold in 2013.

On the other hand, total dollar volume for November was $139M (up 4% over November 2013). Year-to-date dollar volume is $1.75B compared to $1.72B in 2013.

Consistent with the rest of 2014, sales of homes in November priced above $160,000 showed increases in nearly every price category.

Average Days on Market in November were 57; two fewer days than last month. In November 2013, Days on Market was 52.

New homes sold in November totaled 103; down 3% from last year.

Existing home sales were 425; down 6% from November 2013.

Historically November sales decrease from October levels by an average of 9%.   This year there was an decrease of 19%; which is more consistent with the last three years.

Pending sales at the end of November were 827; even to November 2013. Pending sales are our best “forward looking” indicator. The last three months have shown a stronger “Pending Sales” picture.

November median home price was $215,319; up 5% from November 2013. Our YTD median price is $209,990; up 6% over last year.

New Homes median price for September was $295,095; up 7% from November 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 7% to $197,000.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of November decreased 13% from October 2014 to 2,591. This is even to last year.

As is typical this time of year, inventory contracted in all price categories for November.

Consistent what we’ve been observing regarding inventory, homes in the $120,000 – $160,000 shrank more than any other price point.

In Ada County we now have 3.8 months of inventory on hand, essentially unchanged from the end of July.

The price categories in shortest supply are $100,000 to $119,000 which has 1.4 months; and $120,000 – $159,000 which has 1.9 months.

From $200,000 to $400,000 we have 2 – 4 months available.

Of sales in November, the price point that held on to it’s summer pace was $300,000 – $400,000..downs 11%.

As it looks now, in Boise and the nation, sales in 2014 will not exceed 2013 in number of homes sold. Because of the solid median price appreciation, dollar volume will be well ahead of last year.

You will start to hear the media asking: “Is the recovery over?”

The answer to that is a resounding “No.”

Maybe you were at the Real Estate Summit yesterday to hear Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR give his reason for why 2015 will be another very solid year for real estate in Ada County.

One reason for his optimism was released in a report yesterday: “NAR Identifies Top Metro areas Poised for Uptick in Baby Boomer Sales”.

There we are…#2!

March Market Report:Daffodils and Sunshine

Single family home sales in March 2014 were 580 in Ada County, an increase of 4% compared to March 2013.   YTD total sales are up 2% compared to this time last year; 1,425 homes sold compared to 1,396.

March 2014 is the strongest March we’ve had since 2007.

In March 60% of our total sales were for homes priced above $160,000.  This graphically portrays the diminishing role that fist –time buyers has on our market. In 2010 more than 52% of buyers were “first-time”. Today the number of first-time buyers is closer to 35%.  Long-term this is could become problematic for the large number of millennials wanting to more from renters to owners.

Days on Market for March were 67.  That’s about the same as in February, but still up significantly from December’s 59. In March 2013, Days on Market was 66.

New homes sold in March totaled 112; down 17% from last year.

Existing home sales were 468; up 10%.

Historically, March sales increase from February by an average of 36%. March 2014 posted a 37% increase over February.

Of the total sales in March, 12% were distressed; down 1% from last month. In March 2013, 17% of sales were distressed.

For the month of March, REO sales (60% of Distressed; 34 total sales) exceeded Short Sales (40% of Distressed; 24 total sales).

Pending sales at the end of March were 1078; down 16% from March 2013. Pending sales have traied behind previous year’s pending sales for eight consecutive months.

Of Pending sales in distress (11%), there are slightly more Short Sales (54%; 59 sales) than REO’s (46%; 50 sales).

March median home price was $197,900; up 5% from March 2013. Our YTD median price is $200,000; up 8% over last year.

New Homes median price for March was $300,884; up 19% from March 2013. For Existing homes the increase is 7% to $181,125.

The number of houses available for sale at the end of March increased  5% from February 2014 to 2,246.  This is an increase we really needed going into Spring selling season.  This is 25% more than last year at this time.

We anticipate continued inventory growth from now until the end of Summer.

Of the total active listings, 8% are distressed, down 2% from February.

Of our Distressed Inventory, 66% is Short Sales (118) and 34% is REO (61).

In Ada County we now have 4.5 months of inventory on hand, down a little from the end of February.

The price category in shortest supply is <$100K where we have 1.2 months.

From $100,000 to $119,000 we have 1.6 months available.

From $120,000 to $160,000 we have just under 3 months available inventory.

From $160,000 to $300,000 we have nearly 5 months…except for the very popular $250,000 – $300,000 which has only 4.6 month’s supply available.

Above $300,000 we have a 6 month’s supply. Above $500,000 the supply is closer to 22 months.  Remembering that 6 months of available inventory describes a “stable real estate market”; it looks like we are heading into a period of “normal” like we haven’t seen in several years.

Of sales in March, the most popular price point was $120,000 to $160,000 (24%); followed by $160,000 to $200,000 (21%) and  $200,000 to $250,000 with 14%.

So…what’s next?

Sales in March were jump started from February.  We are now chasing a super strong Spring and Summer 2013. April 2013 sales were 719.  Can we increase sales from 580 to 719 with Pending sales where they are? It’s going to be very close.

March is typically a bellwether month for sales and median home price. March 2014 was pretty strong in both categories.  This should continue into the Summer.

We are seeing more and more data that says that the Millennials (the big homebuyer wild card) are feeling better and better about home ownership.  Nearly 90% of Millennial buyers say “homeownership is a good investment”. Our problem is that we don’t have enough inventory to pull them out of their apartments and into homes

This is the pent up demand we’ve been waiting to see activate.

Bottom line…its going to be a roller coaster summer.





ACAR Executive Inducted Into National Leadership Society

Marc_LebowitzBOISE, March, 27:  
Marc Lebowitz, Executive Director for the Ada County Association of Realtors®, was inducted into the National Association of Realtors Bud Smith Leadership Society last week .

To achieve induction into the Dr. Almon R. (Bud) Smith, RCE, AE Leadership Society, it must be demonstrated that nominees have brought credit to the profession of association management through their personal involvement in advancing the purposes of the organization at the local, state, and national level; provided leadership in ways that have benefited the organization, the members, or other association executives; or made other significant contributions that have advanced their organization in meaningful ways. To recognize those who excel in the association management profession by demonstrating uncommon leadership, a willingness to help others, and acceptance of a responsibility to constantly improve themselves.

Lebowitz holds a BA in English and Film from the University of Maryland and has earned both the Realtor Certified Association Executive (RCE) from the National Association of Realtors and the Certified Association Executive (CAE) from the American Society of Association Executives.

Lebowitz serves on the Board of Directors for Neighborhood Housing Services – Southwest.

The Mission of Ada County Association of REALTORS® is to be valued by the real estate profession and the public, to protect private property rights, to better the communities in which we live, and to provide members with tools and resources to conduct their businesses professionally, ethically, and successfully.