October 2018 Market Report

OCTOBER MARKS FOUR YEARS OF DECLINING INVENTORY,
CONTINUING THE PRESSURE ON ADA COUNTY HOME PRICES

 Key Takeaways:

  • October 2018 marks a full four years of falling inventory, specifically in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County.
  •  This lack of inventory compared to demand is one of the primary reasons that the median sales price continues to rise compared to last year.
  •  The median sales price in October 2018 was $321,398, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 19.9% from October 2017.

 Analysis:

October 2018 marks a full four years of falling inventory, specifically in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County, when looking at activity by month year-over-year.

There were 870 existing homes for sale in Ada County in October 2018, down 15.0% from October 2017 and down 48.8% from October 2014 when the decline began.

As we’ve outlined in previous reports, there are many reasons the Boise Region is facing a lack of homes for sale. These include the continued population growth, the trend of people choosing to stay in their homes longer than we’ve seen historically, among others.

This persistent lack of existing home inventory is one of the two primary reasons that the area’s overall median sales price continues to rise compared to last year; the second reason, increasing land, labor, and material costs for new homes. For October 2018, this resulted in a median sales price of $321,398, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 19.9% from October 2017.

This nearly 20% increase year-over-year in the overall median sales price for October was primarily due to a higher share of new home sales during the month ― reaching 27.7% of all closed sales, up 10.1% compared to October 2017.

We’ve been talking about the drop in existing inventory literally for years now, but what’s interesting about today’s market is that we’re seeing more and more new construction sales. Whether you’re looking to buy an existing home or a new build, your REALTOR® is going to advocate for you throughout the transaction. And if you’re thinking of selling, these recent numbers indicate that despite the turn in temperature, it’s still a good time to put your home on the market.


HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY

In October 2018, 36 homes sold in Gem County, up 28.6% from October 2017. This left 57 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month — down 19.7% from the same month last year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last four months.

The median sales price for homes that sold in October was $199,450, based on activity over the past 12 months — up 11.1% over the same period last year. There are two primary reasons that the median sales price rose compared to last year — the lack of inventory compared to demand, and an increase in the share of new homes sales in October.

Five new homes sold in Gem County in October 2018, the same number as October 2017. However, new home sales made up a larger share of total sales at 11.1% in October, compared to the average of 5-6% we typically see in Gem County. New homes typically sell for higher prices than existing homes due to increased land, labor, and material costs, so when the share of new home sales increases, so does the median sales price.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. If you’re thinking about selling, now is a great time to put your home on the market. Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyCanyon CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Oct 18

Canyon Snapshot - Oct 18Gem Snapshot - Oct 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon CountyCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

2018 Mid-Year Housing Summit Recap

Thanks to everyone who attended the 2018 Mid-Year Housing Summit from Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you missed the event, don’t worry! A summary of the discussions and links to the various presentations are available here.

Links and resources referenced at the Mid-Year Housing Summit:

FH ClassInvest in RPACAmm

**Please note: The RPAC investment information on this page is only intended for BRR members.

2017 Boise School District Bond Update

2017 Boise School District Bond Update

Coby Dennis, the Deputy Superintendent of the Boise School District, provided a progress report on the various projects funded by the 2017 school district bond. Boise Regional REALTORS® endorsed and supported this successful campaign last year.


Fair Housing Update

Fair Housing Update

Debbi Myers, certified real estate instructor and BRR Director, discussed the importance of understanding fair housing in our industry and gave a teaser on the upcoming fair housing class that was refreshed in honor of the 50th anniversary of the Fair Housing Act.

Ready to learn more about fair housing? Join us for a Lunch & Learn: That’s Not Fair! How to Avoid Fair Housing Violations, on Tuesday, October 23, from 12:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. Register today!


2018 Mid-Year Residential Real Estate Update

2018 Mid-Year Residential Real Estate Update

Breanna Vanstrom, Chief Executive Officer for Boise Regional REALTORS®, dug into the data and identified the trends regarding price, supply, demand, inventory, and strategies for building your business during the 2018 Min-Year Residential Real Estate Update. You can watch her full presentation on Facebook Live below. Thank you to our Facebook Live Sponsor, Idaho Housing and Finance Association.

“Getting to Solutions” Listening Session on Growth

Getting to Solutions

Soren Dorius, Director of Government Affairs for BRR, started the listening session by sharing some key findings from the Second Annual Treasure Valley Survey a survey conducted by BSU to explore public opinion on growth, transportation, and other issues. This project was funded in part by a $15,000 Smart Growth Grant secured by BRR.

The group shared ideas and solutions about how to maintain the quality of life during this time of growth, thoughts on what area would be the next good candidate for higher density projects, what features and places need to be “off limits” to development, the role of transportation, how REALTORS® can participate in public meetings, and much more.

PHOTO GALLERY

Thanks to our event sponsor and annual sponsors for making this event possible!

FB Live sponsor

2018 Annual Sponsor Poster v3 - compressed

 

Residential Perspective on the Recent BOMA Meeting

A few members have asked for our thoughts on the IBR article about a recent BOMA meeting.

At that event, speakers discussed the need for commercial real estate professionals and developers to prepare for a market downturn and understand the elements that are transforming how the commercial market operates.

On the residential side, Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) and other industry economists, do not sense a major downturn is imminent in our local housing market. In contrast to the commercial market, the residential market is peaking, at least in terms of prices, due to exceptionally low inventory levels compared to the number of buyers moving into our area. It’s classic supply and demand that is pushing up prices.

As noted the IBR article, all markets are cyclical, both commercial and residential. In the housing market, many cite economist Homer Hoyt, who found an 18-year cycle between market peaks. Looking out from the last market valley, some economists are forecasting that the housing market will continue to grow through 2024 or 2026, with market fluctuations between now and then, barring any unforeseen world events or disruptions.

The hope is that when the market cycles back down, it won’t drop back into a recession, but shift back to a more balanced market for buyers and sellers. BRR will continue to watch trends in prices, inventory, unemployment, wages, and economic development, and educate our members on any changes.

While BRR does not make official forecasts, we agree with the sentiment that to survive in real estate long-term, agents must be able to adapt. That requires a solid foundation of professional practices and knowledge, while continuously learning about new trends, consumer needs, advances in technology, and changes to legal and regulatory environments.

For more information on the market stats tracked by BRR and a monthly take on the residential market, visit boirealtors.com/category/market-info.