July 2018 Market Report

ADA COUNTY EXISTING/RESALE
HOUSING INVENTORY INCHES UP IN JULY

  • July 2018 marked four consecutive months of gains in existing/resale inventory in Ada County when measured month-to-month. More inventory is the key to bring balance back to the residential real estate market.
  • Looking at existing and new construction combined, the median sales price for July 2018 was at $319,000 – down just 1.7% from June 2018, but up 18.2% from July 2017.
  • REALTORS® caution sellers not to assume the market has turned as the supply-demand ratio (tracked through the Months Supply of Inventory metric) for homes priced under $500,000 in the existing/resale segment was still under 1.5 months — 4-6 months of supply is considered a balanced market, not favoring buyers or sellers.

July 2018 marked four consecutive months of gains in existing/resale inventory in Ada County when measured month-to-month. More inventory is the key to bring balance back to the residential real estate market, and while this recent uptick was not enough to stop the nearly four-year trend of year-over-year decreases, we’ll certainly take it.

Ada County’s new construction inventory has now been up month-over-month for two consecutive months – but we’ll need to see at least four to six months of consistent month-over-month increases before we can identify any overarching trends in the segment and the market overall.

The additional inventory – and the annual shift in buyer demand (as we move from the spring/early summer market into the late summer/fall market) held prices for existing/resale homes nearly even with June 2018, while new construction prices dipped 3.5%.

Looking at existing and new construction combined, the median sales price for July 2018 was at $319,000 – down just 1.7% from June 2018, but up 18.2% from July 2017.

This is a nice illustration of how more supply – even a little bit – can affect home prices. But sellers should not assume this means the market has turned. Existing homes only spent an average of 18 days on market before going under contract in July, a near-historic low, and 10.0% faster than in July 2017. And while buyer demand may be starting its typical seasonal slowdown, the supply-demand ratio (tracked through the Months Supply of Inventory metric) for homes priced under $500,000 in the existing/resale segment was under 1.5 months. We’re still a far cry from the 4-6 months of supply we need to see the market come totally back into balance.


GEM COUNTY HOMES SALES WERE STRONG
AS INVENTORY INCREASES IN JULY

In July 2018, 31 homes sold in Gem County, up 14.8% from July 2017. This left 76 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month — down 8.4% from the same month last year, but up 4.1% from the previous month (June 2018).

Although inventory is down year-over-year, July 2018 marked four consecutive months of gains in inventory in Gem County when measured month-to-month. More inventory is the key to bring balance back to the residential real estate market. 4-6 months of supply is considered a balanced market, and in July the supply-demand ratio (tracked through the Months Supply of Inventory metric) was 3.0 months of supply in Gem County. However, this doesn’t mean that buyer demand has diminished — pending sales were up 22.6% in July 2018 compared to the year before.

The median sales price for existing/resale homes in Gem County was $194,675 as of July 2018, based on activity over the past 12 months — an increase of 13.7% over the same period last year. For new homes, the median sales price was $208,347 as of July, also based on activity over the past 12 months. This was up 3.9% over the same period in the previous year.

In the city of Emmett, closings were up 8.0% year-over-year, as 27 homes sold in July 2018 compared to 25 in July 2017, for existing/resale and new construction combined. Based on activity in both segments over the past 12 months, the median sales price for Emmett was at $225,829 in July, a gain of 23.1% over the same period last year.

In the last few months, we’ve seen more inventory come onto the market in Gem County, which is needed to bring the market back in balance. If you’re considering selling, speak to a REALTOR® to learn more about your options, and if you’re interested in buying, you may find that there are more homes available in this area that we’ve seen in the last year or so.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyCanyon CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - July 18Canyon Snapshot - July 18

 

Gem Snapshot - July 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon CountyCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

Fast-Moving Housing Market Continues to be Driven by Demand

Despite rising home prices, today’s housing market doesn’t have much else in common with the market we saw prior to the recession.

The Boise Region’s housing market is being driven by real home buyer demand, not speculation, which was common a decade ago. And as we’ve mentioned before, the increase in demand and lack of inventory has pushed up home prices.

The Boise Region’s housing market is being driven by home buyer demand, not speculation. Click To Tweet

That demand for housing can be seen in the data (real or speculative) by looking at the Days on Market.

Days on Market metric (or DOM) counts the average number of days between when a property was listed and when an offer was accepted.

For example, in Ada County, home sales that closed in September spent an average of 32 days on the market before going under contract, 23.8% faster than in September 2016.

DOM doesn’t factor in the time between accepting an offer and closing (which can vary based on the time it takes to complete home inspections, repairs, financing, etc.), so it is a good indicator of the demand for housing, and how quickly sellers find buyers.

DOM is seasonal, meaning homes generally go under contract faster in the spring and summer and slower in the fall and winter. To see the overall trend, we used a 12-month rolling average to remove seasonality. Based on those figures, DOM for Ada County has been trending down since 2009, and since 2014, DOM has been tracking closely with falling inventory.

September 2017 DOM Trends Ada County - web

DOM Chart

The very low DOM of 32 days on average, between February 2006 and January 2007, shows just how quickly buyers were snatching up homes, despite having plenty of inventory to choose from. In the past year or so we’ve experienced quite the opposite — low DOM and very low inventory.

September 2017 DOM Trends Canyon County - webPrior to the recession, Canyon County saw a similar trend with shorter average DOM despite plenty of inventory to meet demand. Since late 2013, DOM has been tracking closely with inventory, indicating increasing demand as inventory drops.

While that historical comparison is another helpful distinction between today’s market and the pre-recession market, it’s not much consolation for today’s buyers who are often required to make quick decisions because of limited inventory. Unless there is a sudden influx of inventory or a quick drop in demand, we expect the market to continue to move quickly, even if we see some slight increases in Days on Market through the winter.

Additional information about trends within each county, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the September 2017 Market Report. This report includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the latest market snapshot graphics for Ada County and Canyon County:

ADA Snapshot - September 17CANYON Snapshot - September 17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This report is provided Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR). BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in Idaho, with over 4,300 members and two wholly-owned subsidiaries — the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service, Inc. (IMLS) and the Boise Regional REALTORS® Foundation. This report is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.  || The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings). If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.