Q1-2018 Market Report

Q1-2018 Ada County Market Report
Warmer Winter Temps Meant an Early Spring Housing Market

Key Takeaways:

  • Warmer winter temps may have encouraged homebuyers to shop earlier, as the growth in purchase activity during the first quarter was more like what we typically see early in the second quarter of the year.
  • The median sales price is the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. For the existing/resale segment, there were approximately 725 homes that sold for less than $273,650 during the first quarter of 2018 in Ada County, and another 725 that sold for more.
  • Prices for existing/resale homes continue to be driven by lack of inventory versus demand, with 33.1% fewer options for buyers to choose from in the first quarter compared to same quarter last year.

Just because there is low inventory doesn’t mean there is no inventory. At the end Q1-2018, there were nearly 1,150 existing and new homes for sale in Ada County across all price points.

Analysis:

During the first quarter of 2018, homebuyers in Ada County purchased 1,450 existing/resale homes and 658 new homes, for year-over-year increases of 7.9% and 26.8%, respectively. Warmer weather over the winter may have encouraged people to shop earlier, as the growth in activity — especially for new construction — is more like what we typically see early in the second quarter of the year.

The Q1-2018 median sales price for existing/resale homes in Ada County was at $273,650, up 21.1% from Q1-2017. The median sales price is the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less during a certain period. For context, this means that there were approximately 725 existing homes that sold for less than $273,650 during the first quarter of 2018 in Ada County, and another 725 that sold for more.

Prices for existing homes continue to be driven by lack of inventory. Based on the number of homes available for purchase at the end Q1-2018—just 498 properties, —homebuyers had 33.1% fewer options to choose from than the previous year.

Looking at the new construction segment, the Q1-2018 median sales price in Ada County was at $355,085, up 12.1% from the same period last year. This means that there were approximately 329 new homes that sold for less than the median price during the first quarter of 2018 in Ada County, and another 329 that sold for more.

New construction prices primarily reflect the rising prices of labor and materials, as well as lower inventory this year than last year. There were 645 new homes for sale at the end of Q1-2018, down 18.7% from the end of Q1-2017. However, there continues to be more new homes available than existing in Ada County.

Key Metrics:

Q1 Ada County Housing Data by Segment



Q1-2018 Gem County Market Report
Low Housing Inventory Persists in Gem County

Q1 Gem County Housing Data by Segment

Homebuyers in Gem County purchased 60 homes during the first quarter of 2018, even with the same quarter last year.

The Q1-2018 median sales price in Gem County was at $189,175, up 9.8% from Q1-2017. The median sales price is the point at which half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less during a certain period. For context, this means that there were approximately 30 homes that sold for less than $189,175 during the first quarter of 2018 in Gem County, and another 30 that sold for more.

Based on the number of homes available for purchase at the end Q1-2018—just 41 properties—homebuyers in Gem County had 43.9% fewer options to choose from this year compared to last year.

Additional information about trends within the Boise region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the March 2018 Ada CountyCanyon County, and Gem County and City Data Market Reports. This includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the latest market snapshot graphics for Ada County Existing/Resale, Ada County New ConstructionCanyon County Existing/Resale, Canyon County New Construction, and Gem County:

ADA Existing Snapshot - March 18

ADA New Construction Snapshot - March 18

 

Canyon Existing Snapshot - March 18

Canyon New Construction Snapshot - March 18

Gem Snapshot - March 18

Download print quality market snapshot graphics for Ada County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionCanyon County Existing/ResaleCanyon County New Construction, and Gem County.

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NOTE: Monthly housing market data for cities and neighborhoods are fantastic tools for REALTORS® to use when advising their clients about real-time home listing and purchase decisions. Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR) will continue providing REALTORS® with monthly data as a member benefit and a market intelligence tool but are shifting to a quarterly market analysis schedule for our press releases. This gives us the ability to look at the macro trends in the data that are shaping our region’s housing market, along with the bandwidth to go deeper into additional metrics, geographies, and market segments, in between these quarterly reports.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

January 2018 Market Report

No Lag in Demand for Homes in Ada County

Last January, we discussed the effects of a historic snowfall on Ada County’s real estate market, which is quite different from recent stories about the mild winter helping boost new construction.

But despite builders being able to work when they normally cannot, it hasn’t been enough to push new inventory higher than it was last year. Homeowners are also not listing quickly enough to raise existing inventory levels, reasons for which are discussed in BRR’s 2017 year-end market report.

Surprisingly, pending sales (a measure of home buyer demand) were up 32.7% year-over-year, even as the supply of homes was down:

Key Metrics January 2017 January 2018 YOY % Chg
Inventory 1,425 1,213 -14.9%
Pending Sales 1,037 1,376 +32.7%
Difference 388 -163

 

When looking at these numbers, we see there were more pending sales in January 2018 than the number of homes for sale, both in the existing and new construction segments (figures above are combined).

This happened in early 2017, as well, and can occur because homes usually don’t close in the same month they are listed since it can take 30-90 days to do so after an offer is accepted.  So, when inventory is very low, there can be more homes under contract or pending, than available for purchase.

It’s remarkable that we’re seeing pending sales outpace inventory for new construction, too, especially considering the weather has been more favorable for building this winter. These numbers further reinforce the tremendous growth and demand for housing in our area.

The result of this very low supply compared to the very high demand, is that the Ada County median sales price hit a new record high of $279,900 in January 2018, up 16.8% from January 2017.

 

Demand and Supply Pressures Impacting Gem County Home Prices

In January 2018, there were 42 homes under contract in Gem County, up 7.7% from January 2017. That left 47 homes available for sale at the end of January, up 11.9% from the same month last year.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 2.2 months in January 2018.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Because buyer demand is outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation, home prices are rising in Gem County. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Based on data between February 2017 and January 2018, the median sales price for Gem County was $183,350, an increase of 10.1% over the same period last year.

Additional information about trends within the Boise region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available in the January 2018 Ada County, Canyon County, and Gem County and City Data Market Reports. This includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

Download the latest market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyCanyon County, and Gem County:

ADA Snapshot - January 18     CANYON Snapshot - January 18     GEM Snapshot - January 18

 

Download print quality snapshot graphics for Ada CountyCanyon County, and Gem County.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing more than 4,400 real estate professionals throughout the Boise region, with a focus on Ada and Gem counties. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com/Statistics/Static.aspx. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance.

The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.