February 2019 Market Report

SHARE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME SALES
CONTINUES ITS CLIMB IN ADA COUNTY

Key Takeaways:

  • New construction sales are gaining more and more of the market share and continuing to influence the overall median sales price.
  • While sales of new construction homes have been up year-over-year for the last 21 consecutive months, sales of existing homes have now been down for the last nine consecutive months.
  • Even though existing inventory is up year-over-year for the second month in a row (after 51 months of declines) this decrease in existing/resale homes sales shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.

As we’ve noted before, the Ada County housing market has been shifting to a new norm with new construction sales gaining more and more of the total market share. In February 2019, new construction sales made up 38.7% of all sales, a 10.0% increase from a year ago.

Feb 19 Market Report Existing vs New Contruction Sales

These changes in segment market share continue to influence the overall median sales price for homes in Ada County. In February, the median sales price was $324,800, up 10.1% from the year before. New construction is typically priced higher primarily due to increasing land, materials, and labor costs.

While sales of new construction homes have been up year-over-year for the last 21 consecutive months, sales of existing homes have now been down for the last nine consecutive months. Even though existing inventory is up year-over-year for the second month in a row (after 51 months of declines) this decrease in existing/resale homes sales shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.

As we mentioned, existing inventory was up in February 7.4% compared to last year, but how did this uptick in inventory impact price? Since home prices are being driven by housing supply versus buyer demand, one would expect the price to drop some as inventory increases, however, we aren’t seeing that dynamic quite yet in this case as the median price for existing homes was $295,000, a 9.3% increase compared to February 2018. This could be because the homes that closed in February likely went under contract 60-90 days prior, when existing inventory was still declining, or could be an indicator of the mix of price points of the inventory available at that time. If existing inventory continues to increase as we head into the spring months, we could start seeing a shift in the median sales price for existing/resale homes.

We’re seeing some shifting dynamics in our local market with the increase in new construction sales. However, this doesn’t mean that there still isn’t abundant demand for existing houses. If you’ve been thinking about listing your home, now would be a great time to talk to your REALTOR® about your options as we head into the spring selling season.


HOME SALES AND PRICES ARE UP IN
ELMORE COUNTY 
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO

Home sales were up 45.5% from February 2018 in Elmore County, with 32 homes being sold this month. The median sales price for homes also rose to $167,000, an increase of 14.0% based on data between March 2018 and February 2019.

Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Buyer demand is outpacing supply, causing home prices to rise in Elmore County, as shown through the low Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI) this month. The relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand), and inventory (which measures supply), is reported as MSI.

There were 56 homes under contract in February 2019, down 5.1% from February 2018, which left 42 homes available for sale at the end of February, down 40% from the same month last year. This meant that Elmore County’s MSI was 1.0 this month, down 50.0% from the same month last year.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Demand for houses is outpacing supply in Elmore County, so prices are rising. Those looking to buy this spring need to be prepared to make quick decisions and work with their REALTOR® to make competitive offers.

 

HOME PRICES DRIVEN BY DEMAND IN GEM COUNTY

In February 2019, there were 48 homes under contract in Gem County, up 2.1% from February 2018. Interestingly, of those 48 pending sales, 12 were new construction, an increase of 100% over the year before. That left 47 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of February, no change from the same month last year.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 2.4 months in February 2019.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Because buyer demand is outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation, home prices are rising in Gem County. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Based on data between February 2018 and February 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $199,450, an increase of 7.8% over the same period last year.

While we didn’t see any new construction sales in February, pending sales for that segment were way up. As new construction sales increase in Gem County and throughout the Treasure Valley, we’ll be keeping an eye on how that impacts the median sales price in the coming months.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

  Ada County February SnapshotElmore County February SnapshotGem County February Snapshot

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).