May 2019 Market Report

SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO
DRIVE HOME PRICES UP IN ADA COUNTY

Key Takeaways:

  • The existing home median sales price reached a new high at $329,000, up 14.7% from May 2018. Local home prices are being driven by the persistently low inventory of existing homes compared to demand.
  • Due to the lack of inventory of homes for sale at the lower price points, the share of higher-priced home sales continued to rise, further driving up the median price for the segment, as well as the market overall.
  • The median sales price for Ada County reached a new record of $342,990 in May 2019, for existing and new homes combined. This was up 12.5% over the same month last year.

Analysis:

The median sales price of existing/resale homes in Ada County reached a new high of $329,000 in May 2019, up 14.7% from May 2018. As noted in previous market reports, local home prices are being driven by the persistently low inventory of existing homes compared to demand.

One of the metrics used to determine supply vs. demand is Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI). A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply. In May 2019, the Months Supply of Inventory metric for Ada County was at just 1.5 months for all price points combined, and for existing homes priced below $300,000 MSI was at one month.

Our market needs additional inventory, especially existing homes below the $300,000 price point. Homeowners may have more equity than ever as home prices have risen, and those who have considered a move should to contact a REALTOR® to understand their options for selling and buying.

Ada County Existing MSI Chart

Because there are fewer homes available at the lower price points, the share of home sales above $300,000 continued to rise – at 61.3% of all existing homes sales in May 2019. As a result, as more existing homes sell at higher price points, it further drives up the median price for the segment, as well as the market overall.

To that point, the median sales price in Ada County, for existing and new homes combined, reached a new record of $342,990 in May 2019, up 12.5% year-over-year.

For those looking to purchase a home in Ada County, don’t lose hope. We’re still at the beginning of the summer selling season so there will be more homes coming online soon. Get your financing in order and work with your REALTOR® to write a competitive offer so that you’re ready when you find your next home.

 

MAY 2019 ELMORE COUNTY HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

As of May 2019, the median sales price for homes in Elmore County reached $168,900; an increase of 11.5% compared to the same time last year and a new record high. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price to get a better idea of the overall trends.

The number of closed sales in Elmore County also increased to 47 last month — up 67.9% from April, but still down 4.1% from the same month last year.

The Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI) in Elmore County increased to 1.8 months — up 20.0% from the same month last year. However, despite the increase in MSI, there were only 68 homes still on the market in Elmore County at the end of May, down 19.0% from May 2018.

The MSI metric measures the relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand) and inventory (which measures supply). A balanced market— not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

The increase in median home price and closed sales is encouraging news for those looking to sell their home in Elmore County. Work with your REALTOR® to take advantage of the current market and get the most out of your current property. And for those looking to buy a home, keep an eye out! Conditions like this could lead to more homes becoming available in your market.

 

MAY 2019 GEM COUNTY HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

As of May 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was at $213,750, an increase of 11.1% over the same period last year. We use a rolling 12-month median sales price to get a better idea of the overall trends due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area.

There were 38 homes sales in May, up 15.2% from May 2018, and up 40.7% from last month. This left 51 homes available for sale at the end of the month, down 12.1% from a year ago.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 1.4 months in May 2019.

A balanced market — not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years, resulting in buyer demand outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation. This, in turn, has caused home prices to rise in Gem County.

Prices will most likely continue to grow and homes will continue to sell quickly, making this market more competitive. Working with a REALTOR® is the best way to find a home you like and gives you your best chance at securing it in markets like this.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - May 19Canyon County Members Only

Elmore Snapshot - May 19Gem Snapshot - May 19

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County. Since Canyon County is not part of BRR’s jurisdiction, we do report on Canyon County market trends. Members can access Canyon County snapshots and reports in the Market Report email, or reach out to us directly at cassie@boirealtors.com or annie@boirealtors.com.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

 

April 2019 Market Report

MORE INVENTORY IN ADA COUNTY HELPED MODERATE HOME PRICES IN APRIL; PLUS, WHY NEW HOMES ARE COMPARATIVELY LESS EXPENSIVE TODAY THAN IN 2007

Key Takeaways:

  • An increase in total inventory and a slight decrease in the share of new home sales last month helped hold home prices steady between March and April.
  • Comparisons to 2007 are typical when median prices go above $300,000, but in doing so, one must adjust prices for inflation.
  • Adjusting for inflation, new homes today are comparatively less expensive than in 2007 when prices were driven by speculation. Current new home prices are impacted by land, labor, and material costs, as well as the low number of “move-in ready” options,  compared to demand.

Analysis:

 The median sales price of existing homes in Ada County was at $308,450 in April 2019, up 12.2% over April 2018 but down slightly from March 2019. The median sales price for new construction was at $369,000, nearly even with last year but down 2.3% from March 2019.

This put the overall median sales price at $331,990 (for existing and new construction activity combined) an increase of 12.5% year-over-year and down just 1.0% from the previous month.

As we’ve reported previously, new construction sales have been gaining more and more of the total market share in Ada County. “Since new homes generally sell for more than existing homes, this segment continues to have a greater impact on the overall median sales price,” said Phil Mount, 2019 President of Boise Regional REALTORS®.

But while the share of new home sales remained high (36.3% of all sales in April) it was just below the share of new home sales in March, which helped moderate the new and overall median prices a bit.

In addition, an increase in total inventory helped hold prices steady month-over-month across all segments. There were 1,525 homes listed as “active” in the multiple listing service, up 22.9% year-over-year and up 12.8% from the previous month. 756 of those listings were new homes ― 269 were move-in ready, 417 were under construction, and 70 were listed as “to be built.”

When median prices go above the $300,000-mark, we’re often asked to compare our current situation with 2007, when the market peaked before the recession. However, when looking at prices that are more than a decade old, we must adjust for inflation.

For example, the median sales price of existing homes previously peaked in 2007 at $227,900. Looking at actual dollars, the median sales price in April 2019 was 35.3% higher than that previous peak. However, adjusting for inflation, that 2007 price would be equivalent to $280,885 in today’s dollars for a comparative increase of 9.8%.

The median sales price of new homes previously peaked in 2007 at $312,575. Looking at actual dollars, the median sales price in April 2019 was 18.1% higher than the 2007 peak. However, adjusting for inflation, that 2007 price would be equivalent to $385,247 in today’s dollars for a comparative decrease of 4.2%.

The theory of supply-and-demand would suggest that the adjusted price decrease for new homes since 2007 should have been caused by more inventory, but that was not the case.

At the 2007 peak, there were 1,355 new homes for sale compared to 756 in April 2019. Instead of prices being based on supply-and-demand, they were being driven by speculation.

Today, new home prices are being driven mostly by higher land, labor, and material costs, as well as a low level of move-in ready inventory,  compared to demand.

Over the next few months, we will be updating our research on affordability, population, wages, inventory, in-migration trends, and more, to provide additional context on our current housing market and how it compares to past market cycles. Please watch for our Mid-Year Market Report in early Q3-2019.

 NOTE: Adjusted prices calculated online at www.usinflationcalculator.com using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation data from the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.


AVAILABLE INVENTORY INCREASES IN ELMORE COUNTY

In April 2019, the Months Supply of Inventory in Elmore County increased to 1.4 months — up 7.7% from the same month last year — ending 6 consecutive months of decline in inventory in the area.

The Months Supply of Inventory metric (or MSI) measures the relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand) and inventory (which measures supply). A balanced market— not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

The median sales price for homes in Elmore County reached $168,500 in April 2019, an increase of 11.2% compared to the same time last year. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Although inventory and home prices increased in April, there were only 28 closed sales in Elmore County, down 37.8% from April 2018.

This month’s increase in inventory is encouraging news for those looking to buy in Elmore County. Work with your REALTOR® to take advantage of the increase in options and see if something new has become available that is right for you.

 

MEDIAN HOME PRICES RISE IN GEM COUNTY

As of April 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $211,500, an increase of 10.0% over the same period last year. We use a rolling 12-month median sales price to get a better idea of the overall trends due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area.

Twenty-seven homes sold in Gem County in April 2019, up 12.5% from March 2019, but down 27.0% from April of last year. This left 37 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month, down 15.9% from a year ago.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 1.2 months in April 2019.

A balanced market — not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years, resulting in buyer demand outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation. This, in turn, has caused home prices to rise in Gem County.

With buyer demand this high, prices will most likely continue to grow and homes will continue to sell quickly. In competitive markets such as this one, it becomes critical to work with your REALTOR® to find the right home and be prepared to make an offer as soon as you find a home you like.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

April 2019 Ada County Market SnapshotApril 2019 Elmore County Market SnapshotApril 2019 Gem County Market Snapshot

 

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Annie Exline, Communications Specialist for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

March 2019 Market Report

 NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME SALES AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN ADA COUNTY

Key Takeaways:

  •  New construction sales are gaining more and more of the market share and continuing to influence the overall median sales price.
  • In the existing home segment, the median sales price has been rising due to a persistent lack of supply, especially in the lower price points.
  • An increased share of higher-priced existing homes has contributed to the higher median sales price reported for the existing home segment.

New Construction’s Impact on the Overall Market
As reported last month, new construction sales are gaining more and more of the total market share in Ada County. Since new homes generally sell for more than existing homes, new home sales continue to have a greater impact on the overall median sales price. In February 2019, new construction sales made up 38.7% of all home sales in Ada County. In March 2019, that share increased to 39.8% resulting in an overall median sales price of $335,000, an increase of 8.4% year-over-year and a record high for Ada County.

Existing Home Prices Up Due to Lack of Lower-Priced Inventory
In the existing home segment, the median sales price has been rising due to a persistent lack of supply, especially in the lower price points. This pushed the median sales price for existing homes in Ada County to $309,900 in March 2019, an increase of 6.9% year-over-year and a record high for the county.

While we have seen gains in the number of existing homes for sale over the past few months, the additional inventory and resulting sales have primarily been in the upper-end of the market:

Change in Sales Price vs Number of Closed Sales

As with new construction’s impact on the overall market, the increased share of higher-priced existing homes has contributed to the higher median sales price reported for the existing home segment.

Where do Condo and Townhomes Fit In?
Traditionally BRR has not reported on the condo/townhome segment, due to the very small market share it represents (less than 10% of the sales and inventory). However, the smaller footprint and shared land costs provide an average list price that’s about 8-9% less than that of single-family homes. While there are not as many condos or townhomes to look at, and there may be costs beyond the purchase price, such as homeowners’ association fees, these could be an option for some buyers.

We’re seeing some shifting dynamics in our local market with the increase in new construction sales and higher-priced existing home sales. However, this doesn’t mean that there still are not affordable options for those who are looking. Now is the time to talk to your REALTOR® about your options.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE IN ELMORE COUNTY

The median sales price for homes in Elmore County reached $167,500 in March 2019, an increase of 13.9% compared to the same time last year. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

This price increase was due in part to more homes being sold at overall higher price points. In March, there were 45 closed sales in Elmore County, up 15.4% from March 2018.

Additionally, buyer demand has continued to outpace supply, putting even more pressure on home prices. In March 2019, the Months Supply of Inventory in Elmore County was at just 0.8 months —  down 60.0% from the same month last year.

The Months Supply of Inventory metric (or MSI) measures the relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand) and inventory (which measures supply). A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

We will continue to monitor how the new construction segment impacts the median sales price, but for those looking to buy or sell, talking to a REALTOR® is the best way to get information about market trends specific to your situation.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY

In March 2019, 24 homes sold in Gem County, up 33.0% from March 2018. This left 39 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month, down 4.9% from a year ago.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 1.9 months in March 2019.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years, resulting in buyer demand outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation. This, in turn, has caused home prices to rise in Gem County.

Based on the rolling median data between March 2018 and March 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $204,250, an increase of 6.2% over the same period last year. We use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area.

As buyer demand continues to grow, so too will the price of homes in Gem County. If you are considering a move—whether buying or selling— talk to a REALTOR® as they can help you determine what’s right for you

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Mar 19March 2019 Elmore County SnapshotMarch 2019 Gem County Snapshot

 

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Annie Exline, Communications Specialist for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

February 2019 Market Report

SHARE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME SALES
CONTINUES ITS CLIMB IN ADA COUNTY

Key Takeaways:

  • New construction sales are gaining more and more of the market share and continuing to influence the overall median sales price.
  • While sales of new construction homes have been up year-over-year for the last 21 consecutive months, sales of existing homes have now been down for the last nine consecutive months.
  • Even though existing inventory is up year-over-year for the second month in a row (after 51 months of declines) this decrease in existing/resale homes sales shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.

As we’ve noted before, the Ada County housing market has been shifting to a new norm with new construction sales gaining more and more of the total market share. In February 2019, new construction sales made up 38.7% of all sales, a 10.0% increase from a year ago.

Feb 19 Market Report Existing vs New Contruction Sales

These changes in segment market share continue to influence the overall median sales price for homes in Ada County. In February, the median sales price was $324,800, up 10.1% from the year before. New construction is typically priced higher primarily due to increasing land, materials, and labor costs.

While sales of new construction homes have been up year-over-year for the last 21 consecutive months, sales of existing homes have now been down for the last nine consecutive months. Even though existing inventory is up year-over-year for the second month in a row (after 51 months of declines) this decrease in existing/resale homes sales shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.

As we mentioned, existing inventory was up in February 7.4% compared to last year, but how did this uptick in inventory impact price? Since home prices are being driven by housing supply versus buyer demand, one would expect the price to drop some as inventory increases, however, we aren’t seeing that dynamic quite yet in this case as the median price for existing homes was $295,000, a 9.3% increase compared to February 2018. This could be because the homes that closed in February likely went under contract 60-90 days prior, when existing inventory was still declining, or could be an indicator of the mix of price points of the inventory available at that time. If existing inventory continues to increase as we head into the spring months, we could start seeing a shift in the median sales price for existing/resale homes.

We’re seeing some shifting dynamics in our local market with the increase in new construction sales. However, this doesn’t mean that there still isn’t abundant demand for existing houses. If you’ve been thinking about listing your home, now would be a great time to talk to your REALTOR® about your options as we head into the spring selling season.


HOME SALES AND PRICES ARE UP IN
ELMORE COUNTY 
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO

Home sales were up 45.5% from February 2018 in Elmore County, with 32 homes being sold this month. The median sales price for homes also rose to $167,000, an increase of 14.0% based on data between March 2018 and February 2019.

Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Buyer demand is outpacing supply, causing home prices to rise in Elmore County, as shown through the low Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI) this month. The relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand), and inventory (which measures supply), is reported as MSI.

There were 56 homes under contract in February 2019, down 5.1% from February 2018, which left 42 homes available for sale at the end of February, down 40% from the same month last year. This meant that Elmore County’s MSI was 1.0 this month, down 50.0% from the same month last year.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Demand for houses is outpacing supply in Elmore County, so prices are rising. Those looking to buy this spring need to be prepared to make quick decisions and work with their REALTOR® to make competitive offers.

 

HOME PRICES DRIVEN BY DEMAND IN GEM COUNTY

In February 2019, there were 48 homes under contract in Gem County, up 2.1% from February 2018. Interestingly, of those 48 pending sales, 12 were new construction, an increase of 100% over the year before. That left 47 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of February, no change from the same month last year.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 2.4 months in February 2019.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Because buyer demand is outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation, home prices are rising in Gem County. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Based on data between February 2018 and February 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $199,450, an increase of 7.8% over the same period last year.

While we didn’t see any new construction sales in February, pending sales for that segment were way up. As new construction sales increase in Gem County and throughout the Treasure Valley, we’ll be keeping an eye on how that impacts the median sales price in the coming months.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

  Ada County February SnapshotElmore County February SnapshotGem County February Snapshot

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

January 2019 Market Report

EXISTING HOUSING SUPPLY UP IN JANUARY
AFTER 51 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF DECLINES

Key Takeaways:

  • January 2019 was the first time since October 2014 that the year-over-year number of existing homes for sale in Ada County increased, rather than decreased, up 5.9% from January 2018.
  • Despite this uptick in existing inventory, closed sales were down 6.3% year-over-year. The number of closed sales that are even possible was limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.
  • This additional inventory impacted the months supply of existing/resale inventory in Ada County, which was at 1.2 months in January, for all price points combined, up from 0.9 months as of January and was higher than we saw in any month in 2018 except for one.

Analysis:

Did the new year bring with it a new trend in the housing market for Ada County? While one month of existing inventory increases can’t be considered a trend, January 2019 was the first time since October 2014 that the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County was higher than the same month the previous year — up 5.9% compared to January 2018. We’re hopeful that this year-over-year increase is the start of inventory coming back into balance, however, we still have quite a ways to go before that happens.

Any increase in housing inventory is welcome news to those who’ve been looking to buy. If you’ve been considering a move, now would be a great time to talk to your REALTOR® about what’s newly available.

Despite this recent uptick in existing inventory, overall closed sales were down 6.3% year-over-year. Looking at the existing/resale segment specifically, sales were down 18.6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand for over four years. The logic is simple — buyers haven’t been able to buy homes that aren’t for sale.

Speaking of buyer demand, the “Months Supply of Inventory” metric is a way to measure the relationship between inventory and buyer demand. This metric takes the number of homes for sale (inventory) divided by the average number of closed sales by month for the preceding twelve months. The resulting number can be described as the number of months it would take to sell through all the available supply assuming no other homes came on the market.

As of January 2019, the months supply of existing/resale inventory in Ada County was at 1.2 months, for all price points combined, up from 0.9 months in January 2018, when looking year-over-year, as well as December 2018 looking month-to-month. Still a far cry from the 4-6 months of supply that is considered “balanced,” but a small step in that direction. We will continue to monitor these metrics to see if the trend continues into spring.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN ELMORE COUNTY IN JANUARY

In January 2019, 44 homes sold in Elmore County, up 12.8% over last year. This left 42 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 41.7% year-over-year. Like other areas in southwest Idaho, and nationwide, Elmore County has seen a dwindling supply of existing/resale homes for sale in recent years.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through January 2019 was $166,600 — up 17.3% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Elmore County. Thinking about selling? Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.

 

GEM COUNTY HOME SALES DOWN IN JANUARY

In January 2019, 13 homes sold in Gem County, down 27.8% from last year. This left 44 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 6.4% year-over-year. This drop in sales could be due in part to seasonality, and the fact that Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years.

What does that mean for home sales in the coming months? Homes under contract, also called “pending sales,” are properties with an accepted offer that should close within 30-90 days. Pending sales were also down year-over-year in January by 4.8%, but up from the previous month by 33.3%, so February and March will likely bring more sales than what we saw in the first month of 2019.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through January 2019 was $198,225 — up 10.4% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Although home sales are down a bit compared to January 2018 in Gem County, we don’t anticipate that will continue as we head into the spring market. And with prices where they are, those who are selling are getting a great value for their homes. If you think you might be ready for a move, talk your REALTOR® to find out what options are available based on your specific situation.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

 ADA Snapshot - Jan 19Elmore Snapshot - Jan 19Gem Snapshot - Jan 19

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

2018 Residential Real Estate Market Report

Year-End 2018 Market Report - FINAL_Page_01

2018 was another year of record low inventory and record high median sales prices in Ada County — dropping to just 474 existing homes for sale in January and reaching a median sales price of $334,400 overall in August. Area home prices are being driven up by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, as well as more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

Despite the effects of low inventory and more new home sales, out-of-state buyers continue to be pointed to as the primary driver of rising prices by some. Our research shows that while in-migration contributes to the demand for housing, low inventory and a larger share of new home sales are the main factors determining home prices.

As long as demand continues to outpace existing supply, and new home sales claim a larger share of total sales, our market is expected to be one of the few nationwide to grow in 2019. We’ll certainly be keeping an eye on these trends and provide updates in our future reports.

See BRR’s 2018 Residential Real Estate Market Report for more on inventory, prices, affordability, and migration trends.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

 

December 2018 Market Report

2018 BROUGHT RECORD HIGH HOME PRICES IN ADA COUNTY — BUT WHY?

 Key Takeaways:

  •  For the year, Ada County’s overall median sales price ended at $314,000 year-to-date (January 1–December 31, 2018), driven by more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs, and the persistently low inventory of existing/resale homes.
  • While new home sales were up 22.4% in 2018 compared to 2017 — the number of existing/resale home sales over the same period was down 4.1%. Closed sales are limited in the existing/resale segment due to the supply of homes for sale dropping year-over-year for 51 consecutive months.

Analysis:

2018 was another year of record low inventory and record high home prices in Ada County. Last year also gave us the first signs that the market may be shifting back towards balance, and many economists expect that to continue throughout 2019.

The overall median sales price (activity for existing/resale and new homes combined) was often reported as the area norm in 2018. However, to better understand our local market dynamics, it’s important to identify the factors that are driving prices in both segments and how those trends are affecting the overall median.

Case in point — based on past data, when new construction sales made up more than 24% or 25% of the total sales in a given month, the overall median sales price was 12-14% higher than the previous year, on average.

Since March 2018, every month of the year saw the share of new construction sales at or above that level, which had a major impact on the area’s overall median sales price:

December 18 Ada County Share of New Home Sales

In addition, the median sales price for new homes has also been rising steadily, due to increasing costs of land, labor, and construction materials. The 2018 median sales price for new construction in Ada County was $373,898, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2017.  So, how much did this combination of more new homes selling at higher prices push Ada County’s overall median sales price up? For the year, the county’s overall median sales price ended at $314,000 year-to-date (January 1–December 31, 2018), an increase of 18.0% over the same period in 2017.

While new home sales were up 22.4% in 2018 compared to 2017 — again, having a significant impact on the new record overall median sales prices we saw in 2018 — the number of existing/resale home sales over the same period was down 4.1%.

Despite the year-over-year slip in existing home sales (more on that in a minute), the median sales price for existing homes in Ada County increased by 17.2% compared to 2017, ending the year at $290,000. As we’ve discussed many times throughout the year, this segment’s prices are being driven by the historic low levels of homes for sale compared to buyer demand.

December 2018 marked 51 consecutive months of year-over-year falling inventory in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County. The number of closed sales that are even possible is limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand. This is the primary reason we’re seeing closed sales down year-over-year.

Inventory vs. Closed Sales - Ada County Dec 2018

Another way to measure the relationship between inventory and buyer demand is with “Months Supply of Inventory.” This metric takes the number of homes for sale (inventory) divided by the average number of closed sales by month for the preceding twelve months. The resulting number can be described as the number of months it would take to sell through all the available supply assuming no other homes came on the market.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply. Below four months typically favors sellers and more than six months typically favors buyers.

As of December 2018, the months supply of existing/resale inventory in Ada County was at 0.9 months, for all price points combined. (For comparison, while new construction supply under $250,000 was at 2.0 months of inventory, the overall segment climbed to 4.0 months (with all price points combined.)

Ada County MSI - Dec 2018

As long as the months supply of inventory for existing homes stays right around 1-2 months, existing home prices should remain higher. This metric is showing us that buyer demand persists, even as there are fewer homes from which they can choose.

In summary, local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

We’ll dig into additional trends and data in our forthcoming year-end market report to get a better sense of how the market is shifting. Most importantly, we’ll look at buyer demand – where it’s coming from, what’s happening in related markets, and how our local economy and housing market is much different than a decade ago. It will also touch on forecasts from national economists, both for our local market and the U.S. overall. Check back soon!

 

MORE GEM COUNTY HOMES SOLD AT HIGHER PRICES IN 2018 

For 2018, Gem County’s overall median sales price ended at $199,782 year-to-date (January 1 – December 31, 2018), an increase of 7.9% over the same period in 2017. There were 342 home sales in 2018, up 8.2% compared to 2017. 317 of those were existing/resale closed sales, while 25 were new construction sales — a 25% increase in new construction sales from the year before.  

New homes typically sell at higher price points, due to increases in costs of land, labor and construction materials, so this larger share of new construction sales has brought up the overall median sales price of homes in Gem County last year. Persistently low inventory compared to buyer demand is the other factor driving up the median sales price.

One way to measure the relationship between inventory and buyer demand is with “Months Supply of Inventory.” This metric takes the number of homes for sale (inventory) divided by the average number of closed sales by month for the preceding twelve months. The resulting number can be described as the number of months it would take to sell through all the available supply assuming no other homes came on the market.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply. Below four months typically favors sellers and more than six months typically favors buyers.

As of December 2018, the months supply of inventory in Gem County was at 2.5 months, for all price points combined. This is an uptick from the 1.5 months we saw in November, but still not considered a balanced market. As you can see in the chart below, the months supply inventory is at less than a month below $200,000 price point.

December 18 Gem MSI

Gem County experienced the same market conditions in 2018 that we’ve seen elsewhere in the Treasure Valley — higher home prices due to low inventory and more new construction sales.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on prices, inventory, and months supply of inventory to see if the market is shifting more into balance in 2019.

 

RESOURCES: 

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Dec 18Gem Snapshot - Dec 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

November 2018 Market Report

MORE NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES AND FEWER EXISTING HOMES KEPT
ADA COUNTY PRICES UP IN NOVEMBER

Key Takeaways:

  •  The overall median sales price for Ada County reached $324,250 in November 2018, driven by the persistently low inventory of existing homes, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.
  • There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.


Analysis:

The median sales price for Ada County in November 2018 was $324,250 for existing and new homes combined. This was up 20.1% over the same month last year, but nearly even with October 2018.

As we’ve shared many times through our market reports, local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

On average, the share of monthly homes sales that are new is typically between 22-23%, meaning the other 77-78% of the sales are of existing homes. When the share of new home sales goes over 24% or 25%, we will see overall home prices (looking at existing and new homes together) increase, on average, between 12-14% year-over-year. As the share of new home sales increases, so does the overall median sales price and the related year-over-year increase.

This is what’s meant when we say the “overall home price is being driven up by more new homes selling.” To further illustrate this, the following table shows the share of new home sales over the past nine months compared to the overall median sales price and year-over-year increase:

November 18 Ada County Share of New Home Sales

However, new home prices are just part of the story.

In November 2018, the median sales price of existing homes in Ada County reached was $295,000, up 18.0% over November 2017. In this segment of the market, price increases are being driven by very low inventory compared to buyer demand.

There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties — and down 12.1% from last year. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.

In comparison, the median sales price for new construction was at $390,000 in November 2018, up 13.9% over November 2017, and just below the most recent record high for this segment, which was $393,705 in June 2018.

If our market conditions of low inventory and high demand continue, there is no guarantee we’ll see prices drop significantly over the next few months, as we might normally expect as we move into the winter months.

However, those thinking about selling or buying shouldn’t be concerned with ‘timing the market,’ because the best time to buy or sell is when it fits your needs and circumstances. If you’re thinking about making a move, talk to your REALTOR® to explore your options.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY IN NOVEMBER

In November 2018, 27 homes sold in Gem County, up 17.4% over last year. This left 53 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 15.9% year-over-year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last five months.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through November 2018 was $196,303 — up 8.1% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. Thinking about selling? Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.


RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Nov 18Gem Snapshot - Nov 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

October 2018 Market Report

OCTOBER MARKS FOUR YEARS OF DECLINING INVENTORY,
CONTINUING THE PRESSURE ON ADA COUNTY HOME PRICES

 Key Takeaways:

  • October 2018 marks a full four years of falling inventory, specifically in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County.
  •  This lack of inventory compared to demand is one of the primary reasons that the median sales price continues to rise compared to last year.
  •  The median sales price in October 2018 was $321,398, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 19.9% from October 2017.

 Analysis:

October 2018 marks a full four years of falling inventory, specifically in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County, when looking at activity by month year-over-year.

There were 870 existing homes for sale in Ada County in October 2018, down 15.0% from October 2017 and down 48.8% from October 2014 when the decline began.

As we’ve outlined in previous reports, there are many reasons the Boise Region is facing a lack of homes for sale. These include the continued population growth, the trend of people choosing to stay in their homes longer than we’ve seen historically, among others.

This persistent lack of existing home inventory is one of the two primary reasons that the area’s overall median sales price continues to rise compared to last year; the second reason, increasing land, labor, and material costs for new homes. For October 2018, this resulted in a median sales price of $321,398, up 0.8% from the previous month and up 19.9% from October 2017.

This nearly 20% increase year-over-year in the overall median sales price for October was primarily due to a higher share of new home sales during the month ― reaching 27.7% of all closed sales, up 10.1% compared to October 2017.

We’ve been talking about the drop in existing inventory literally for years now, but what’s interesting about today’s market is that we’re seeing more and more new construction sales. Whether you’re looking to buy an existing home or a new build, your REALTOR® is going to advocate for you throughout the transaction. And if you’re thinking of selling, these recent numbers indicate that despite the turn in temperature, it’s still a good time to put your home on the market.


HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY

In October 2018, 36 homes sold in Gem County, up 28.6% from October 2017. This left 57 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month — down 19.7% from the same month last year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last four months.

The median sales price for homes that sold in October was $199,450, based on activity over the past 12 months — up 11.1% over the same period last year. There are two primary reasons that the median sales price rose compared to last year — the lack of inventory compared to demand, and an increase in the share of new homes sales in October.

Five new homes sold in Gem County in October 2018, the same number as October 2017. However, new home sales made up a larger share of total sales at 11.1% in October, compared to the average of 5-6% we typically see in Gem County. New homes typically sell for higher prices than existing homes due to increased land, labor, and material costs, so when the share of new home sales increases, so does the median sales price.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. If you’re thinking about selling, now is a great time to put your home on the market. Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Oct 18

Gem Snapshot - Oct 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

September 2018 Market Report

ADA COUNTY HOUSING MARKET SLOWS ITS PACE … EVER SO SLIGHTLY

Key Takeaways: 

  • Similar to nationwide trends in recent months, existing home sales in Ada County were down 24.0% compared to the same month last year – and down 25.2% from August 2018.
  • The primary factor affecting sales is the lack of existing inventory. Existing inventory has been consistently down year-over-year for 48 months or four years. As of September 2018, inventory of existing homes in Ada County was down 19.2% compared the same month the previous year.
  • Beyond inventory and sales counts, there are three other metrics we’re also watching closely to see which way the market may be moving: days on market, percent of original list price, and months supply of inventory.
  • It’s a complex set of factors that will determine where the market goes in the next few months – and REALTORS® are the best-equipped partner to help sellers correctly price their homes based on real-time data, and help buyers understand where they may have room to negotiation.

 Analysis:

Speculation that the real estate market is turning is a hot topic across the country, as year-over-year existing home sales have been down or remained flat in many states over the past few months.

In Ada County, existing home sales in September 2018 were down 24.0% compared to the same month last year – and down 25.2% from August 2018. This number marks the first double-digit decline in existing home sales since February 2017 which could easily support that “market turn” discussion.

It’s important to keep in mind that there are a variety of factors affecting our sales figures, primarily the number of existing homes that are even available to purchase which has been consistently down year-over-year for 48 months, or four years. As of September 2018, inventory of existing homes in Ada County was down 19.2% compared the same month the previous year.

Beyond inventory and sales counts, there are three other metrics we’re also watching closely to see which way the market may be moving: days on market, percent of original list price, and months supply of inventory.

Days on market measures the time between when a home is listed and when it goes under contract. As of September 2018, it was at 23 days in Ada County for existing homes, up three days from August, and up five days over July. That’s providing a bit of breathing room for buyers, and potentially the opportunity to negotiate a bit on price.

The percent of original list price received measures the difference between the original listing price and the final sold price, noting any price reductions made by the seller or as negotiated with the buyer. In September, the average percent of original list price received on existing homes (with at least one day on the market) was at 98.1% — down from 99.0% in August, and 99.2% in July.

What does this mean for buyers and sellers? Buyers may feel less frantic in their home search, as market times have slowed as we move into fall and winter. And although sellers are enjoying near-record sales prices, it’s becoming increasingly important to work with your REALTOR® to price your home competitively.

That said, home prices should remain higher year-over-year, though, as the months supply of inventory metric (which measures inventory versus demand) was at just one month in September 2018, where a balanced market, not favoring buyers or sellers, is typically between 4-6 months of supply of inventory.

Whether the closed sales decline is truly an early indicator of the market moving back towards balance, there are many factors that are affecting our current housing market, including the persistent low levels of inventory, seasonality, or even affordability and interest rate concerns. It’s a complex set of factors that will determine where the market goes in the next few months – and REALTORS® are the best-equipped partner to help sellers correctly price their homes based on real-time data, and help buyers understand where they may have room to negotiation.


GEM COUNTY HOME PRICES EDGE UP DUE TO LOW INVENTORY, HIGH DEMAND

Continuing what we saw in August, in September the supply of housing was down 13.9% from a year ago and sales were up 24.1% in Gem County. The function of supply and demand drove the median sales price for homes that sold in September to $197,877, based on activity over the past 12 months — up 12% over the same period last year.

Price gains were also felt in the city of Emmett. Based on activity in both existing/resale and new construction homes over the past 12 months, the median sales price for the city of Emmett was at $202,500 in September, a gain of 18.3% over the same period last year.

Looking at the supply-demand ratio of months supply of inventory — which takes the number of homes for sale divided by the average number of sales by month — there were 1.6 months in September 2018, down 30.4% year-over-year. A balanced market— not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically between 4-6 months of supply.

One noticeable difference between the August and September numbers was the Days on Market metric, or DOM, which measures the time between when a home is listed and when it goes under contract. Homes that closed in August spent an average of 22 days on the market before going under contract, and homes that closed in September spent an average of 38 days – not a surprising change as we typically see a seasonal slowdown as we head into the fall and winter months.

It’s normal to see the market slow down a bit as we head into winter. If you’re thinking about buying this fall, you may enjoy a less frantic pace than what we experienced in the summer months, and if you’re considering selling, now is a great time because sellers are still receiving great prices on their homes. Either way, work with your REALTOR® who has access to real-time data and the expertise to help make that move a smart one.


RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Sept 18Gem Snapshot - Sept 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New Construction, and Gem County.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)6 trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).