April 2019 Market Report

MORE INVENTORY IN ADA COUNTY HELPED MODERATE HOME PRICES IN APRIL; PLUS, WHY NEW HOMES ARE COMPARATIVELY LESS EXPENSIVE TODAY THAN IN 2007

Key Takeaways:

  • An increase in total inventory and a slight decrease in the share of new home sales last month helped hold home prices steady between March and April.
  • Comparisons to 2007 are typical when median prices go above $300,000, but in doing so, one must adjust prices for inflation.
  • Adjusting for inflation, new homes today are comparatively less expensive than in 2007 when prices were driven by speculation. Current new home prices are impacted by land, labor, and material costs, as well as the low number of “move-in ready” options,  compared to demand.

Analysis:

 The median sales price of existing homes in Ada County was at $308,450 in April 2019, up 12.2% over April 2018 but down slightly from March 2019. The median sales price for new construction was at $369,000, nearly even with last year but down 2.3% from March 2019.

This put the overall median sales price at $331,990 (for existing and new construction activity combined) an increase of 12.5% year-over-year and down just 1.0% from the previous month.

As we’ve reported previously, new construction sales have been gaining more and more of the total market share in Ada County. “Since new homes generally sell for more than existing homes, this segment continues to have a greater impact on the overall median sales price,” said Phil Mount, 2019 President of Boise Regional REALTORS®.

But while the share of new home sales remained high (36.3% of all sales in April) it was just below the share of new home sales in March, which helped moderate the new and overall median prices a bit.

In addition, an increase in total inventory helped hold prices steady month-over-month across all segments. There were 1,525 homes listed as “active” in the multiple listing service, up 22.9% year-over-year and up 12.8% from the previous month. 756 of those listings were new homes ― 269 were move-in ready, 417 were under construction, and 70 were listed as “to be built.”

When median prices go above the $300,000-mark, we’re often asked to compare our current situation with 2007, when the market peaked before the recession. However, when looking at prices that are more than a decade old, we must adjust for inflation.

For example, the median sales price of existing homes previously peaked in 2007 at $227,900. Looking at actual dollars, the median sales price in April 2019 was 35.3% higher than that previous peak. However, adjusting for inflation, that 2007 price would be equivalent to $280,885 in today’s dollars for a comparative increase of 9.8%.

The median sales price of new homes previously peaked in 2007 at $312,575. Looking at actual dollars, the median sales price in April 2019 was 18.1% higher than the 2007 peak. However, adjusting for inflation, that 2007 price would be equivalent to $385,247 in today’s dollars for a comparative decrease of 4.2%.

The theory of supply-and-demand would suggest that the adjusted price decrease for new homes since 2007 should have been caused by more inventory, but that was not the case.

At the 2007 peak, there were 1,355 new homes for sale compared to 756 in April 2019. Instead of prices being based on supply-and-demand, they were being driven by speculation.

Today, new home prices are being driven mostly by higher land, labor, and material costs, as well as a low level of move-in ready inventory,  compared to demand.

Over the next few months, we will be updating our research on affordability, population, wages, inventory, in-migration trends, and more, to provide additional context on our current housing market and how it compares to past market cycles. Please watch for our Mid-Year Market Report in early Q3-2019.

 NOTE: Adjusted prices calculated online at www.usinflationcalculator.com using Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation data from the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.


AVAILABLE INVENTORY INCREASES IN ELMORE COUNTY

In April 2019, the Months Supply of Inventory in Elmore County increased to 1.4 months — up 7.7% from the same month last year — ending 6 consecutive months of decline in inventory in the area.

The Months Supply of Inventory metric (or MSI) measures the relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand) and inventory (which measures supply). A balanced market— not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

The median sales price for homes in Elmore County reached $168,500 in April 2019, an increase of 11.2% compared to the same time last year. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Although inventory and home prices increased in April, there were only 28 closed sales in Elmore County, down 37.8% from April 2018.

This month’s increase in inventory is encouraging news for those looking to buy in Elmore County. Work with your REALTOR® to take advantage of the increase in options and see if something new has become available that is right for you.

 

MEDIAN HOME PRICES RISE IN GEM COUNTY

As of April 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $211,500, an increase of 10.0% over the same period last year. We use a rolling 12-month median sales price to get a better idea of the overall trends due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area.

Twenty-seven homes sold in Gem County in April 2019, up 12.5% from March 2019, but down 27.0% from April of last year. This left 37 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month, down 15.9% from a year ago.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 1.2 months in April 2019.

A balanced market — not favoring buyers or sellers — is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years, resulting in buyer demand outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation. This, in turn, has caused home prices to rise in Gem County.

With buyer demand this high, prices will most likely continue to grow and homes will continue to sell quickly. In competitive markets such as this one, it becomes critical to work with your REALTOR® to find the right home and be prepared to make an offer as soon as you find a home you like.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

April 2019 Ada County Market SnapshotApril 2019 Elmore County Market SnapshotApril 2019 Gem County Market Snapshot

 

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Annie Exline, Communications Specialist for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

March 2019 Market Report

 NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME SALES AND MEDIAN HOME PRICES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN ADA COUNTY

Key Takeaways:

  •  New construction sales are gaining more and more of the market share and continuing to influence the overall median sales price.
  • In the existing home segment, the median sales price has been rising due to a persistent lack of supply, especially in the lower price points.
  • An increased share of higher-priced existing homes has contributed to the higher median sales price reported for the existing home segment.

New Construction’s Impact on the Overall Market
As reported last month, new construction sales are gaining more and more of the total market share in Ada County. Since new homes generally sell for more than existing homes, new home sales continue to have a greater impact on the overall median sales price. In February 2019, new construction sales made up 38.7% of all home sales in Ada County. In March 2019, that share increased to 39.8% resulting in an overall median sales price of $335,000, an increase of 8.4% year-over-year and a record high for Ada County.

Existing Home Prices Up Due to Lack of Lower-Priced Inventory
In the existing home segment, the median sales price has been rising due to a persistent lack of supply, especially in the lower price points. This pushed the median sales price for existing homes in Ada County to $309,900 in March 2019, an increase of 6.9% year-over-year and a record high for the county.

While we have seen gains in the number of existing homes for sale over the past few months, the additional inventory and resulting sales have primarily been in the upper-end of the market:

Change in Sales Price vs Number of Closed Sales

As with new construction’s impact on the overall market, the increased share of higher-priced existing homes has contributed to the higher median sales price reported for the existing home segment.

Where do Condo and Townhomes Fit In?
Traditionally BRR has not reported on the condo/townhome segment, due to the very small market share it represents (less than 10% of the sales and inventory). However, the smaller footprint and shared land costs provide an average list price that’s about 8-9% less than that of single-family homes. While there are not as many condos or townhomes to look at, and there may be costs beyond the purchase price, such as homeowners’ association fees, these could be an option for some buyers.

We’re seeing some shifting dynamics in our local market with the increase in new construction sales and higher-priced existing home sales. However, this doesn’t mean that there still are not affordable options for those who are looking. Now is the time to talk to your REALTOR® about your options.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES CONTINUE TO RISE IN ELMORE COUNTY

The median sales price for homes in Elmore County reached $167,500 in March 2019, an increase of 13.9% compared to the same time last year. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

This price increase was due in part to more homes being sold at overall higher price points. In March, there were 45 closed sales in Elmore County, up 15.4% from March 2018.

Additionally, buyer demand has continued to outpace supply, putting even more pressure on home prices. In March 2019, the Months Supply of Inventory in Elmore County was at just 0.8 months —  down 60.0% from the same month last year.

The Months Supply of Inventory metric (or MSI) measures the relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand) and inventory (which measures supply). A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

We will continue to monitor how the new construction segment impacts the median sales price, but for those looking to buy or sell, talking to a REALTOR® is the best way to get information about market trends specific to your situation.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY

In March 2019, 24 homes sold in Gem County, up 33.0% from March 2018. This left 39 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of the month, down 4.9% from a year ago.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 1.9 months in March 2019.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years, resulting in buyer demand outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation. This, in turn, has caused home prices to rise in Gem County.

Based on the rolling median data between March 2018 and March 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $204,250, an increase of 6.2% over the same period last year. We use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area.

As buyer demand continues to grow, so too will the price of homes in Gem County. If you are considering a move—whether buying or selling— talk to a REALTOR® as they can help you determine what’s right for you

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Mar 19March 2019 Elmore County SnapshotMarch 2019 Gem County Snapshot

 

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Annie Exline, Communications Specialist for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

How to Donate to the REALTORS® Community Foundation

How to Donate

All donations made through BRR’s REALTORS® Community Foundation are tax-deductible and benefit those in need in our community. Ready to donate? There are three ways to make a contribution:

  • Drop by the BRR office to make your donation in person (credit or debit cards, checks, and cash accepted).
  • Call BRR at 208-376-0363 (credit or debit cards accepted over the phone).
  • Donate by credit or debit card online (find instructions and video showing how to donate online below). You must be a BRR member to donate online.

Step-by-step instructions to pay online:

  1. Go to the BRR member login.
  2. Enter your login information and click “Login“. (Note: If you do not know your login information, call BRR at 208-376-0363 or email info@boirealtors.com)
  3. Once you are logged in, click on the “Shop” tab in the top ribbon.
  4. In the center of the screen, you should see a rectangle that says, “Voluntary Foundation Contribution, $5.00“. Click “Add to Cart“.
  5. Then click, “View Cart“.
  6. Donations are in $5.00 increments. Click the + or – button until you reach the desired donation amount.
  7. Then click “Update“. The total should show the updated donation.
  8. Click “Checkout“.
  9. Enter your credit card information and click “Continue“.
  10. Confirm your payment and donation details, then click “Submit Payment“.
  11. A confirmation will display, and an email receipt will be sent to the email address BRR has on file.

If you have questions about donating online, contact BRR’s Director of Membership and Education, Angela Gibson or BRR’s Chief Executive Officer, Breanna Vanstrom.

February 2019 Market Report

SHARE OF NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME SALES
CONTINUES ITS CLIMB IN ADA COUNTY

Key Takeaways:

  • New construction sales are gaining more and more of the market share and continuing to influence the overall median sales price.
  • While sales of new construction homes have been up year-over-year for the last 21 consecutive months, sales of existing homes have now been down for the last nine consecutive months.
  • Even though existing inventory is up year-over-year for the second month in a row (after 51 months of declines) this decrease in existing/resale homes sales shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.

As we’ve noted before, the Ada County housing market has been shifting to a new norm with new construction sales gaining more and more of the total market share. In February 2019, new construction sales made up 38.7% of all sales, a 10.0% increase from a year ago.

Feb 19 Market Report Existing vs New Contruction Sales

These changes in segment market share continue to influence the overall median sales price for homes in Ada County. In February, the median sales price was $324,800, up 10.1% from the year before. New construction is typically priced higher primarily due to increasing land, materials, and labor costs.

While sales of new construction homes have been up year-over-year for the last 21 consecutive months, sales of existing homes have now been down for the last nine consecutive months. Even though existing inventory is up year-over-year for the second month in a row (after 51 months of declines) this decrease in existing/resale homes sales shouldn’t come as a surprise, as the number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.

As we mentioned, existing inventory was up in February 7.4% compared to last year, but how did this uptick in inventory impact price? Since home prices are being driven by housing supply versus buyer demand, one would expect the price to drop some as inventory increases, however, we aren’t seeing that dynamic quite yet in this case as the median price for existing homes was $295,000, a 9.3% increase compared to February 2018. This could be because the homes that closed in February likely went under contract 60-90 days prior, when existing inventory was still declining, or could be an indicator of the mix of price points of the inventory available at that time. If existing inventory continues to increase as we head into the spring months, we could start seeing a shift in the median sales price for existing/resale homes.

We’re seeing some shifting dynamics in our local market with the increase in new construction sales. However, this doesn’t mean that there still isn’t abundant demand for existing houses. If you’ve been thinking about listing your home, now would be a great time to talk to your REALTOR® about your options as we head into the spring selling season.


HOME SALES AND PRICES ARE UP IN
ELMORE COUNTY 
COMPARED TO A YEAR AGO

Home sales were up 45.5% from February 2018 in Elmore County, with 32 homes being sold this month. The median sales price for homes also rose to $167,000, an increase of 14.0% based on data between March 2018 and February 2019.

Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Buyer demand is outpacing supply, causing home prices to rise in Elmore County, as shown through the low Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI) this month. The relationship between pending sales (which measures buyer demand), and inventory (which measures supply), is reported as MSI.

There were 56 homes under contract in February 2019, down 5.1% from February 2018, which left 42 homes available for sale at the end of February, down 40% from the same month last year. This meant that Elmore County’s MSI was 1.0 this month, down 50.0% from the same month last year.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Demand for houses is outpacing supply in Elmore County, so prices are rising. Those looking to buy this spring need to be prepared to make quick decisions and work with their REALTOR® to make competitive offers.

 

HOME PRICES DRIVEN BY DEMAND IN GEM COUNTY

In February 2019, there were 48 homes under contract in Gem County, up 2.1% from February 2018. Interestingly, of those 48 pending sales, 12 were new construction, an increase of 100% over the year before. That left 47 new and existing/resale homes available for sale at the end of February, no change from the same month last year.

Pending sales (or homes under contract) measures buyer demand, while inventory (or homes for sale) measures supply. The relationship between these two metrics is reported as Months Supply of Inventory (or MSI), which was at 2.4 months in February 2019.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically when MSI is between 4-6 months of supply. MSI below four months is usually more favorable to sellers, while MSI above six months is usually more favorable to buyers.

Because buyer demand is outpacing supply, as shown through the low MSI calculation, home prices are rising in Gem County. Due to the smaller number of transactions that occur in the area, we use a rolling 12-month median sales price, to get a better idea of the overall trends.

Based on data between February 2018 and February 2019, the median sales price for Gem County was $199,450, an increase of 7.8% over the same period last year.

While we didn’t see any new construction sales in February, pending sales for that segment were way up. As new construction sales increase in Gem County and throughout the Treasure Valley, we’ll be keeping an eye on how that impacts the median sales price in the coming months.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

  Ada County February SnapshotElmore County February SnapshotGem County February Snapshot

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

January 2019 Market Report

EXISTING HOUSING SUPPLY UP IN JANUARY
AFTER 51 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF DECLINES

Key Takeaways:

  • January 2019 was the first time since October 2014 that the year-over-year number of existing homes for sale in Ada County increased, rather than decreased, up 5.9% from January 2018.
  • Despite this uptick in existing inventory, closed sales were down 6.3% year-over-year. The number of closed sales that are even possible was limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand.
  • This additional inventory impacted the months supply of existing/resale inventory in Ada County, which was at 1.2 months in January, for all price points combined, up from 0.9 months as of January and was higher than we saw in any month in 2018 except for one.

Analysis:

Did the new year bring with it a new trend in the housing market for Ada County? While one month of existing inventory increases can’t be considered a trend, January 2019 was the first time since October 2014 that the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County was higher than the same month the previous year — up 5.9% compared to January 2018. We’re hopeful that this year-over-year increase is the start of inventory coming back into balance, however, we still have quite a ways to go before that happens.

Any increase in housing inventory is welcome news to those who’ve been looking to buy. If you’ve been considering a move, now would be a great time to talk to your REALTOR® about what’s newly available.

Despite this recent uptick in existing inventory, overall closed sales were down 6.3% year-over-year. Looking at the existing/resale segment specifically, sales were down 18.6% from a year ago. The number of closed sales that are even possible has been limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand for over four years. The logic is simple — buyers haven’t been able to buy homes that aren’t for sale.

Speaking of buyer demand, the “Months Supply of Inventory” metric is a way to measure the relationship between inventory and buyer demand. This metric takes the number of homes for sale (inventory) divided by the average number of closed sales by month for the preceding twelve months. The resulting number can be described as the number of months it would take to sell through all the available supply assuming no other homes came on the market.

As of January 2019, the months supply of existing/resale inventory in Ada County was at 1.2 months, for all price points combined, up from 0.9 months in January 2018, when looking year-over-year, as well as December 2018 looking month-to-month. Still a far cry from the 4-6 months of supply that is considered “balanced,” but a small step in that direction. We will continue to monitor these metrics to see if the trend continues into spring.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN ELMORE COUNTY IN JANUARY

In January 2019, 44 homes sold in Elmore County, up 12.8% over last year. This left 42 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 41.7% year-over-year. Like other areas in southwest Idaho, and nationwide, Elmore County has seen a dwindling supply of existing/resale homes for sale in recent years.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through January 2019 was $166,600 — up 17.3% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Elmore County. Thinking about selling? Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.

 

GEM COUNTY HOME SALES DOWN IN JANUARY

In January 2019, 13 homes sold in Gem County, down 27.8% from last year. This left 44 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 6.4% year-over-year. This drop in sales could be due in part to seasonality, and the fact that Gem County has had persistently low existing/resale inventory for the last several years.

What does that mean for home sales in the coming months? Homes under contract, also called “pending sales,” are properties with an accepted offer that should close within 30-90 days. Pending sales were also down year-over-year in January by 4.8%, but up from the previous month by 33.3%, so February and March will likely bring more sales than what we saw in the first month of 2019.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through January 2019 was $198,225 — up 10.4% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Although home sales are down a bit compared to January 2018 in Gem County, we don’t anticipate that will continue as we head into the spring market. And with prices where they are, those who are selling are getting a great value for their homes. If you think you might be ready for a move, talk your REALTOR® to find out what options are available based on your specific situation.

 

RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyElmore CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

 ADA Snapshot - Jan 19Elmore Snapshot - Jan 19Gem Snapshot - Jan 19

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New ConstructionElmore County and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

The REALTOR® Trademark and Logo in Member Marketing

As part of the charter issued to BRR by the National Association of REALTORS®, BRR is required to enforce NAR’s trademark rules surrounding the use of the term “REALTOR®” (a registered trademark owned by NAR) by our members and within our jurisdiction. We’re sending this notice to all of our REALTOR® members as an annual reminder on how to how to properly use the REALTOR® trademark and logo in your marketing.

Below is information about what’s allowed and what is not regarding the trademark rules. REALTOR® members of NAR may refer to themselves as a “REALTOR®” but only in connection with their full name or their brokerage, as follows, and not with team names, adjectives or descriptors: REALTOR usage examples

Agents who have incorrectly used “REALTOR®” in connection with a geography or other adjective, usually ask why the BRR and Idaho REALTORS® (IR) names are allowed. It’s due to an exception that NAR has for associations; however, that does not extend to members.

Often the misuse of the trademark is unintentional; nevertheless, it must be corrected in all instances, including but not limited to advertisements, websites/URLs, email addresses, social media profiles, business cards, signs, etc., as soon as possible — expenses we’d much rather see members avoid. This is why BRR shares this information with new members and sends an annual reminder (this email) to all members. We ask that you review it when considering changes to branding and before new materials are created.

To get the ® symbol, use Alt+0174 on PCs, Option+R on Macs, or type “(r)” and hit “Enter.”

More information about NAR’s trademark rules is available at nar.realtor/logos-and-trademarkrules, including the requirement to use the term in all caps and with the registered “R” symbol. Additional information about using it on social media is at nar.realtor/logos-and-trademarkrules/trademark-use-on-social-media, for instances where the registered “R” symbol is unavailable. We also have this information in a printable guide.

If you have any questions about this, please contact BRR’s Chief Executive Officer, Breanna Vanstrom, at breanna@boirealtors.com. You can also reach out to Breanna to request a review of your branding, marketing, communications, etc., to ensure the trademark is being used properly. If your marketing materials are currently misusing the trademark, we thank you in advance for getting them corrected as quickly as possible. Thank you for your assistance in protecting the REALTOR® brand in our market.

2018 Residential Real Estate Market Report

Year-End 2018 Market Report - FINAL_Page_01

2018 was another year of record low inventory and record high median sales prices in Ada County — dropping to just 474 existing homes for sale in January and reaching a median sales price of $334,400 overall in August. Area home prices are being driven up by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, as well as more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

Despite the effects of low inventory and more new home sales, out-of-state buyers continue to be pointed to as the primary driver of rising prices by some. Our research shows that while in-migration contributes to the demand for housing, low inventory and a larger share of new home sales are the main factors determining home prices.

As long as demand continues to outpace existing supply, and new home sales claim a larger share of total sales, our market is expected to be one of the few nationwide to grow in 2019. We’ll certainly be keeping an eye on these trends and provide updates in our future reports.

See BRR’s 2018 Residential Real Estate Market Report for more on inventory, prices, affordability, and migration trends.

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This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

 

December 2018 Market Report

2018 BROUGHT RECORD HIGH HOME PRICES IN ADA COUNTY — BUT WHY?

 Key Takeaways:

  •  For the year, Ada County’s overall median sales price ended at $314,000 year-to-date (January 1–December 31, 2018), driven by more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs, and the persistently low inventory of existing/resale homes.
  • While new home sales were up 22.4% in 2018 compared to 2017 — the number of existing/resale home sales over the same period was down 4.1%. Closed sales are limited in the existing/resale segment due to the supply of homes for sale dropping year-over-year for 51 consecutive months.

Analysis:

2018 was another year of record low inventory and record high home prices in Ada County. Last year also gave us the first signs that the market may be shifting back towards balance, and many economists expect that to continue throughout 2019.

The overall median sales price (activity for existing/resale and new homes combined) was often reported as the area norm in 2018. However, to better understand our local market dynamics, it’s important to identify the factors that are driving prices in both segments and how those trends are affecting the overall median.

Case in point — based on past data, when new construction sales made up more than 24% or 25% of the total sales in a given month, the overall median sales price was 12-14% higher than the previous year, on average.

Since March 2018, every month of the year saw the share of new construction sales at or above that level, which had a major impact on the area’s overall median sales price:

December 18 Ada County Share of New Home Sales

In addition, the median sales price for new homes has also been rising steadily, due to increasing costs of land, labor, and construction materials. The 2018 median sales price for new construction in Ada County was $373,898, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2017.  So, how much did this combination of more new homes selling at higher prices push Ada County’s overall median sales price up? For the year, the county’s overall median sales price ended at $314,000 year-to-date (January 1–December 31, 2018), an increase of 18.0% over the same period in 2017.

While new home sales were up 22.4% in 2018 compared to 2017 — again, having a significant impact on the new record overall median sales prices we saw in 2018 — the number of existing/resale home sales over the same period was down 4.1%.

Despite the year-over-year slip in existing home sales (more on that in a minute), the median sales price for existing homes in Ada County increased by 17.2% compared to 2017, ending the year at $290,000. As we’ve discussed many times throughout the year, this segment’s prices are being driven by the historic low levels of homes for sale compared to buyer demand.

December 2018 marked 51 consecutive months of year-over-year falling inventory in the number of existing homes for sale in Ada County. The number of closed sales that are even possible is limited due to the fact we’ve had fewer and fewer existing homes to sell each month compared to buyer demand. This is the primary reason we’re seeing closed sales down year-over-year.

Inventory vs. Closed Sales - Ada County Dec 2018

Another way to measure the relationship between inventory and buyer demand is with “Months Supply of Inventory.” This metric takes the number of homes for sale (inventory) divided by the average number of closed sales by month for the preceding twelve months. The resulting number can be described as the number of months it would take to sell through all the available supply assuming no other homes came on the market.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply. Below four months typically favors sellers and more than six months typically favors buyers.

As of December 2018, the months supply of existing/resale inventory in Ada County was at 0.9 months, for all price points combined. (For comparison, while new construction supply under $250,000 was at 2.0 months of inventory, the overall segment climbed to 4.0 months (with all price points combined.)

Ada County MSI - Dec 2018

As long as the months supply of inventory for existing homes stays right around 1-2 months, existing home prices should remain higher. This metric is showing us that buyer demand persists, even as there are fewer homes from which they can choose.

In summary, local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

We’ll dig into additional trends and data in our forthcoming year-end market report to get a better sense of how the market is shifting. Most importantly, we’ll look at buyer demand – where it’s coming from, what’s happening in related markets, and how our local economy and housing market is much different than a decade ago. It will also touch on forecasts from national economists, both for our local market and the U.S. overall. Check back soon!

 

MORE GEM COUNTY HOMES SOLD AT HIGHER PRICES IN 2018 

For 2018, Gem County’s overall median sales price ended at $199,782 year-to-date (January 1 – December 31, 2018), an increase of 7.9% over the same period in 2017. There were 342 home sales in 2018, up 8.2% compared to 2017. 317 of those were existing/resale closed sales, while 25 were new construction sales — a 25% increase in new construction sales from the year before.  

New homes typically sell at higher price points, due to increases in costs of land, labor and construction materials, so this larger share of new construction sales has brought up the overall median sales price of homes in Gem County last year. Persistently low inventory compared to buyer demand is the other factor driving up the median sales price.

One way to measure the relationship between inventory and buyer demand is with “Months Supply of Inventory.” This metric takes the number of homes for sale (inventory) divided by the average number of closed sales by month for the preceding twelve months. The resulting number can be described as the number of months it would take to sell through all the available supply assuming no other homes came on the market.

A balanced market—not favoring buyers or sellers—is typically between 4-6 months of supply. Below four months typically favors sellers and more than six months typically favors buyers.

As of December 2018, the months supply of inventory in Gem County was at 2.5 months, for all price points combined. This is an uptick from the 1.5 months we saw in November, but still not considered a balanced market. As you can see in the chart below, the months supply inventory is at less than a month below $200,000 price point.

December 18 Gem MSI

Gem County experienced the same market conditions in 2018 that we’ve seen elsewhere in the Treasure Valley — higher home prices due to low inventory and more new construction sales.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on prices, inventory, and months supply of inventory to see if the market is shifting more into balance in 2019.

 

RESOURCES: 

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Dec 18Gem Snapshot - Dec 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).

What Days Does IREC Consider Holidays vs. Business Days?

I recently received a question from a member asking whether Veterans Day was considered a business day with regards to real estate contracts. To answer this question and to help us prep our calendars for 2019, I checked with MiChell Bird, Executive Director for the Idaho Real Estate Commission (IREC), for clarification.

According to a definition in IREC’s license law:

54-2004(10)”Business days” means and includes each day of the week except Saturday, Sundays and any other legal holiday enumerated in section 73-108, Idaho Code.

And according to general code for the state of Idaho:

73-108. Holidays enumerated. Holidays, within the meaning of these compiled laws, are (bullets added):

  • Every Sunday;
  • January 1 (New Year’s Day);
  • Third Monday in January (Martin Luther King, Jr.-Idaho Human Rights Day);
  • Third Monday in February (Washington’s Birthday);
  • Last Monday in May (Memorial Day);
  • July 4 (Independence Day);
  • First Monday in September (Labor Day);
  • Second Monday in October (Columbus Day);
  • November 11 (Veterans Day);
  • Fourth Thursday in November (Thanksgiving Day);
  • December 25 (Christmas);
  • Every day appointed by the President of the United States, or by the governor of this state, for a public fast, thanksgiving, or holiday.
  • Any legal holiday that falls on Saturday, the preceding Friday shall be a holiday and any legal holiday enumerated herein other than Sunday that falls on Sunday, the following Monday shall be a holiday.

Need more information? You can read the full statute here.

November 2018 Market Report

MORE NEW CONSTRUCTION SALES AND FEWER EXISTING HOMES KEPT
ADA COUNTY PRICES UP IN NOVEMBER

Key Takeaways:

  •  The overall median sales price for Ada County reached $324,250 in November 2018, driven by the persistently low inventory of existing homes, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.
  • There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.


Analysis:

The median sales price for Ada County in November 2018 was $324,250 for existing and new homes combined. This was up 20.1% over the same month last year, but nearly even with October 2018.

As we’ve shared many times through our market reports, local home prices are being driven by the persistent and historically low inventory of existing homes compared to demand, and more new homes selling at overall higher prices, primarily due to rising construction costs.

On average, the share of monthly homes sales that are new is typically between 22-23%, meaning the other 77-78% of the sales are of existing homes. When the share of new home sales goes over 24% or 25%, we will see overall home prices (looking at existing and new homes together) increase, on average, between 12-14% year-over-year. As the share of new home sales increases, so does the overall median sales price and the related year-over-year increase.

This is what’s meant when we say the “overall home price is being driven up by more new homes selling.” To further illustrate this, the following table shows the share of new home sales over the past nine months compared to the overall median sales price and year-over-year increase:

November 18 Ada County Share of New Home Sales

However, new home prices are just part of the story.

In November 2018, the median sales price of existing homes in Ada County reached was $295,000, up 18.0% over November 2017. In this segment of the market, price increases are being driven by very low inventory compared to buyer demand.

There were just 661 existing homes available for sale at the end of November 2018, down 24.0% from October — a drop of 209 properties — and down 12.1% from last year. More existing inventory is needed at all prices points to meet the demand from home buyers, which is what will contribute to our market eventually coming back in to balance.

In comparison, the median sales price for new construction was at $390,000 in November 2018, up 13.9% over November 2017, and just below the most recent record high for this segment, which was $393,705 in June 2018.

If our market conditions of low inventory and high demand continue, there is no guarantee we’ll see prices drop significantly over the next few months, as we might normally expect as we move into the winter months.

However, those thinking about selling or buying shouldn’t be concerned with ‘timing the market,’ because the best time to buy or sell is when it fits your needs and circumstances. If you’re thinking about making a move, talk to your REALTOR® to explore your options.

 

HOME SALES AND PRICES UP IN GEM COUNTY IN NOVEMBER

In November 2018, 27 homes sold in Gem County, up 17.4% over last year. This left 53 homes available for sale at the end of the month — a decrease of 15.9% year-over-year. Despite persistently low inventory, Gem County has seen strong sales numbers for the last five months.

Looking at sales over the past 12 months, the median price for homes that sold through November 2018 was $196,303 — up 8.1% over the same period last year.

Due to the smaller number of sales in the county, the 12-month average is a helpful way of analyzing area price trends, as it adjusts for any months in which a very high- or low-priced home sold that would otherwise be inconsistent with the general market.

Apparently, the colder temps haven’t deterred buyers in Gem County. Thinking about selling? Talk your REALTOR® to find out what your home may be worth and what options are available based on your specific situation.


RESOURCES:

Additional information about trends within the Boise Region, by price point, by existing and new construction, and by neighborhood, are now available here: Ada CountyGem County, and City Data Market Reports. Each includes an explanation of the metrics and notes on data sources and methodology.

ADA Snapshot - Nov 18Gem Snapshot - Nov 18

Download the latest (print quality) market snapshot graphics for Ada CountyAda County Existing/ResaleAda County New Construction, and Gem County.

# # #

This report is provided by Boise Regional REALTORS® (BRR), a 501(c)(6) trade association, representing real estate professionals throughout the Boise region. Established in 1920, BRR is the largest local REALTOR® association in the state of Idaho, helping members achieve real estate success through ethics, professionalism, and connections. BRR has two wholly-owned subsidiaries, Intermountain MLS (IMLS) and the REALTORS® Community Foundation.

If you have questions about this report, please contact Cassie Zimmerman, Director of Communications for Boise Regional REALTORS®. If you are a consumer, please contact a REALTOR® to get the most current and accurate information specific to your situation.

The data reported is based primarily on the public statistics provided by the IMLS, available at: intermountainmls.com. These statistics are based upon information secured by the agent from the owner or their representative. The accuracy of this information, while deemed reliable, has not been verified and is not guaranteed. These statistics are not intended to represent the total number of properties sold in the counties or cities during the specified time period. The IMLS and BRR provide these statistics for purposes of general market analysis but make no representations as to past or future performance. The term “single-family homes” includes detached single-family homes with or without acreage, as classified in the IMLS. These numbers do not include activity for mobile homes, condominiums, townhomes, land, commercial, or multi-family properties (like apartment buildings).